Caste calculus, dynastic politics biggest casualties as Modi wave sweeps UP

All it took for the mahagathbandhan to crumble was one electoral loss. The Narendra Modi juggernaut brutally undid the caste combination of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh, just a year after the Grand Alliance tasted success in the bypolls in Gorakhpur, Phoolpur and Kairana.

Out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP, the BJP and ally Apna Dal won 64, mahagathbandhan 15, while the Congress managed to win only Raebareli. Priyanka Gandhi's much-hyped entry into politics turned out to be a damp squib, and Congress president Rahul Gandhi bit the dust at family bastion Amethi.

The mahagathbandhan was hopeful of transfer of votes between constituents, but the BJP upset their caste calculations riding high on PM Modi's flagship schemes such as Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, toilets, power and LPG connections, which ensured rural votes in favour of the saffron party.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll data shows that Jats, who have historically voted for the RLD, mostly supported the BJP this time. In UP, 57 per cent of the Jat votes went to BJP, 35 per cent to the Grand Alliance, and 8 per cent to the Congress and other regional parties.

The growing inclination of Jats towards the BJP is the biggest reason Ajit Singh's party drew a blank despite support from SP and BSP.

The India Today-Axis My India post poll survey shows that 60 per cent non-Jatav Dalits voted for the BJP, 30 per cent for the mahagathbandhan, while the Congress and other parties managed to get only 10 per cent.

Jatav Dalits, considered loyalists of BSP supremo Mayawati, largely voted for the Grand Alliance. The mahagathbandan got 74 per cent Jatav votes, NDA 21 per cent, UPA 3 per cent, and other parties 2 per cent.

Upper caste voters once again trusted the BJP, which received 77 per cent of their vote share. The mahagathbandhan got only 12 per cent upper caste votes, while the remaining 11 per cent went to UPA and other parties.

Yadavs, the core voter base of SP, once again supported Akhilesh. While the SP-BSP-RLD alliance received 72 per cent Yadav votes, NDA received 20 per cent. The remaining 8 per cent went to the UPA and other parties.

However, the NDA pocketed a large chunk of non-Yadav votes. Data shows 76 per cent OBCs, excluding Yadavs, supported the NDA, while the Grand Alliance could only get 14 per cent. The UPA received 4 per cent non-Yadav OBC votes and the remaining went to other parties.

Muslims threw their weight behind the mahagathbandhan, which received 73 per cent of the community's votes.

A deeper analysis shows that BJP's social engineering was more lethal than the mahagathbandhan. The saffron party, with support from non-Jatav Dalits, non-Yadav OBCs, Jats and upper castes, returned to power with thumping majority. The BJP received 59 per cent of the total vote share in UP.

The mahagathbandhan may have been supported by Jatav Dalits, Yadavs and Muslims, but its 39 per cent vote share couldn't convert to enough seats. The Congress, on the other hand, with only 6 per cent of the vote share, has been rejected by every section of society.

Economic background-wise breakup

Data shows that BJP received support from every section of society cutting across economic backgrounds.

According to India Today-Axis My India data, 51 per cent families with monthly income of up to Rs 5,000 supported the NDA. Some 38 per cent in this group trusted the mahagathbandhan, and the remaining 11 per cent supported the UPA and other parties.

More than 50 per cent families with monthly income of Rs 6,000-30,000 supported the BJP. The mahagathbandhan received 37 per cent vote from this group. Some 46 per cent families earning Rs 30,000 and above supported the BJP, while 36 per cent backed the Grand Alliance.

How other groups voted

On the education front too, the BJP raced ahead of other parties. From illiterate to professional degree holders, an average of 52 per cent supported it, while 38 per cent backed the SP-BSP-RLD alliance.

Some 50 per cent of the voters aged between 18 and 35 years backed the NDA, while 40 per cent in this group supported the Grand Alliance.

The saffron alliance got 51 per cent rural votes, mahagathbandhan 39 per cent, UPA 6 per cent and other parties 4 per cent. In urban areas, 52 per cent votes went to NDA, 37 per cent to the SP-BSP-RLD alliance, 7 per cent to UPA and 4 per cent to other parties.

Losers and gainers

The biggest loss in UP is for Akhilesh, who has revived the BSP from zero seats in 2014 to 10 this time, putting his own political future at stake. SP could win only five seats and even lost from its strongholds of Kannauj, Badaun and Firozabad, the seats represented by his wife Dimple, and cousin brothers Dharmendra and Akshay Yadav.

The results clearly indicate that while SP managed to transfer its votes to the BSP, it did not happen the other way round.

The BJP's success in UP makes it clear that the mahagathbandhan's focus on caste arithmetic and its strategy of targeting PM Modi in joint rallies failed to connect with voters. However, people in most parts of the state voted in Modi's name and not for the candidate.

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