(Bloomberg) -- Mask-wearing and hand washing were factors in controlling the virus in Japan, government experts said, but later added that their effect may have been limited compared with messaging on avoiding high-risk environments.
The shifting emphasis in written answers to questions from Bloomberg comes amid speculation as to how Japan has fared so much better than most developed countries in limiting the spread of the new coronavirus.
As of Thursday, Japan had confirmed more than 16,000 infections and about 900 deaths from the virus, by far the lowest figures among the Group of Seven major economies.
Japan has urged people to avoid environments with what it calls the “Three Cs”, meaning close contact in closed-off, crowded spaces, where experts say most infections have occurred. But that won’t be enough to avoid a second wave of infections.
Even as the nation inches toward resuming more activities, experts need to stamp out clusters faster than ever to fend off a more serious second wave of infections, according to an update of written responses by the panel.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ended the national state of emergency Monday, as cases tailed off. He laid out plans for a gradual resumption of economic and social activities, in tandem with precautions against another major outbreak.
While Japan is currently held up as having dealt with Covid-19 relatively well, its health-care system came close to collapse. There was no legally enforceable lock down, but social distancing caused severe economic pain, according to the comments provided via Mikihito Tanaka, an associate professor of journalism at Waseda University, who liaises with media for the panel.
The following is an edited translation of the panel’s updated responses to Bloomberg’s written questions.
Q: The vice-chairman of the expert panel, Shigeru Omi, has said that strong health consciousness among the Japanese helped keep the outbreak under control. What did he mean by health consciousness, and how does this differ from other countries?
A: There’s strong awareness of public hygiene, starting with the habit of washing our hands. And, due to historical experiences, there is widespread knowledge about preventing infections.
Another social factor is that Japanese people feel comfortable wearing masks on a daily basis. Many people are allergic to pollen, so they do this during the cedar pollen season from the beginning of the year until spring, as well as to protect against influenza.
(Additional comment) But in fact, the effect of hygiene-awareness and wearing masks on the number of deaths and serious cases may have been limited. Most infections have happened in situations where what Japan calls the “Three Cs” overlap. In general, people don’t wear masks in these types of places. People’s health consciousness in terms of avoiding these places and not overcrowding medical facilities was probably the most important thing.
Q: What lessons have you learned for preventing a second wave?
A: Cluster surveillance has enabled us to ascertain what situations and places present a high risk. We have found out that wearing masks, hand hygiene, physical distancing and avoiding talking loudly are effective in preventing transmission.
A second wave is very possible, so we need to detect clusters faster than before. We also need to use the antigen testing we have developed, alongside PCR testing, to find cases before symptoms become serious.
(Additional comment) However, there hasn’t been enough debate on how antigen testing should be used, even supposing it is practical in terms of accuracy and supply.
Q: Would you rate Japan’s virus policy as a success?
A: Japan’s health care system was on the brink of collapse, and we just barely managed to avoid that, thanks to an all-Japan effort. Even though we didn’t go as far as a lock down like those seen in the U.S. and Europe, there has been great social and economic sacrifice. It’s difficult to find a balance between preventing the spread of the disease and social and economic activity.
Japan didn’t have a legal means of imposing a lock down, but modeling showed that reducing social contacts by 80% would reduce infections, and many citizens cooperated. Of course, we weren’t 100% confident that everyone would comply, but we hoped and trusted that they would.
Q: Do you have enough testing capacity? How much PCR and antibody testing is needed?
A: Japan’s initial policy was to test people when doctors considered it to be necessary. But the spread of the disease in mid-March meant that we weren’t able to provide testing for all citizens who needed it. PCR testing capacity didn’t expand fast enough to keep pace.
The absolute number of tests has been far lower than in other countries, but in fact the number of tests per reported death has been higher in Japan. In addition, the proportion of tests that yield a positive result was at one point more than 30% and has now fallen below 1%. It’s below 1% for the entire country, which is low compared with other nations, so we think the testing system is reasonable.
At this point, we are still not sure of the accuracy, especially in terms of sensitivity and specificity, of antibody tests. While we haven’t greatly misread the spread of the infection so far, in order to relieve the underlying anxiety of the Japanese people, we need to be able to carry out more antibody tests more quickly. It’s also important to have a communication system to listen to the views of the people.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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