For years, Milos Raonic has been seen as a decent player in the top twenty with the potential to win big titles, but was not really that close to realising that potential. Under the guidance of Carlos Moya, and briefly John McEnroe, the big-serving Canadian morphed into one of the biggest threats on the ATP World Tour. With new-found consistency, Raonic had the best year of his career and set himself up to contend regularly for big titles in 2017 and beyond.
Win-Loss
Raonic went 52-17 in 2016, the most wins in a season for the Canadian. He only won one title, in his very first event in Brisbane, but reached three other finals, all of them big, including his first career major final at Wimbledon. His consistent results throughout the year allowed him to spend much of it in the top five and managed to sneak in in the last week of the season to jump up 11 spots from 2015 and finish the year at a career-high of number three in the world.
High Points
It was clear right from the beginning of the season that Raonic was not the same player who had stumbled through 2015, being constantly dogged by injuries. The Canadian started the season by reaching the semifinals or better at his first three events, including two finals, as well as reaching the quarterfinals or better at his first six events. In total, he would reach the quarterfinals or better at 10 of his first 12 events.
He opened his season in Brisbane, reaching his second straight final and flipping the script from the previous year, knocking off Roger Federer, who had beaten him in the 2015 final, in straight sets. A few weeks later, he battled into the semifinals of a major for the second time at the Australian Open, taking out 2014 champion Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round. He was in control in that semifinal clash with Andy Murray, leading two sets to one before an adductor injury slowed him up. If not for the injury, which kept him out until Indian Wells, he likely would have reached his first major final five months earlier. Still, when he returned in Indian Wells, he picked up where he left off, firing into the final (where he fell to Novak Djokovic).
Raonic would remain consistent for the next few months, but the best part of his season was still to come. When the tour shifted to the grass courts of London, under the guidance of three-time Wimbledon champion John McEnroe, Raonic finally showed the form on grass that the world has been expecting for five years. First, he tore through the draw at the Queen’s Club and took a set and a break lead over Murray in the final before the Scot battled back to take the title. After the match, Raonic joked that he hoped to be meeting Murray again in a London final in three weeks, referencing the Wimbledon final.
No one took the prediction particularly seriously, but Raonic believed it. At the All-England Club, the Canadian continued to blast through opponents, serving and volleying his way into the fourth round at Wimbledon without dropping a set. There, he fell behind two sets to love against David Goffin, only to battle back and win the match, his first comeback from 0-2 down. After knocking off the in-form giant slayer Sam Querrey (who had upset Djokovic in the third round), Raonic played the match of his life against seven-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer. A rematch of the 2014 semifinals, the two battled for nearly three and a half hours. Two games away from defeat in the fourth set, Raonic would rally, completing the comeback from two sets to one down to reach his first career Grand Slam final, becoming the first man to reach a major singles final from Canada. In the final, while he was defeated in straight sets by Murray, he put up a good fight, only dropping serve once in the match.
Raonic would cool off after Wimbledon, but London again proved to be his magic city at season’s end. With the number three ranking on the line at the ATP World Tour Finals, Raonic brought his A-game. He finished second in his group with straight set wins over Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem, along with a heart-breaking two-tiebreak loss to Djokovic that he could have won, to set up a third London clash with Murray. The two dueled for three hours and 38 minutes, the longest match in ATP World Tour Finals history, with Raonic again leading by a set and a break only for Murray to fight back. Twice the Canadian trailed by a break in the deciding set with Murray serving for the match, but managed to force a tiebreak. Despite holding a match point in that tiebreak, Murray would take it 11-9 to advance to the final in what the ATP World Tour ranked as the best match of 2016. Raonic proved to be the biggest threat to Murray’s dream of finishing the year at number one, as the Scot would blow out Djokovic in the final.
Low Points
The adductor injury suffered in the semifinals of the Australian Open was certainly one of the most disappointing moments of the year for the Canadian, as it likely denied him his first major final. It also forced him to miss a month of action. However, it did little to slow his form, as he would pick up where he left off after the injury.
After his brilliant start to 2016, Raonic suffered a brief lull late in the clay court season. His quarterfinal streak was snapped at the Italian Open, as he fell in the third round to Nick Kyrgios. At the French Open, he suffered a disappointing fourth round loss to world number 55 Albert Ramos-Vinolas in straight sets.
After reaching the semifinals of Cincinnati, Raonic’s body started to give out on him. Starting at the US Open, injuries would play a role in many of his losses down the stretch. The US Open was easily the worst. He won the opening set against 120th ranked Ryan Harrison when an attack of cramps slowed him, allowing Harrison to fight back and send the Canadian packing. Twice in the final months of the season, Raonic reached the semifinals of events, only to have to withdraw with injuries. First, in Beijing, it was an ankle injury that forced him out in the semifinals. At the Paris Masters, he tore his quad which again forced him to withdraw before contesting a semifinal. Luckily, they all healed in time for the World Tour Finals.
Best Results
Raonic reached four finals in 2016, one at each level. First, he won his lone title at the 250 event in Brisbane in the opening week of the season, scoring the first of his two big wins over Federer. He also reached the final of the 500-level Queen’s Club, the Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells, and of course Wimbledon. He also reached four big semifinals: the Australian Open (the first time in his career that he reached the semifinals of two majors in a season), Masters 1000 events in Cincinnati and Paris, and the World Tour Finals. He also had a career-best eight wins over top ten opponents, including two wins over Federer and one over Wawrinka.
Worst Results
Twice Raonic lost his opening matches at tournaments, including as the defending champion in St. Petersburg to Mikhail Youzhny, and in Basel to Ricardas Berankis. His most disappointing loss of the year was easily his second round loss to Harrison at the US Open. He also suffered a frustrating loss in the third round of Shanghai to Jack Sock. Raonic won the opening set 6-0 and held match points in the third, but could not convert and went on to lose the match. Starting at the US Open, Raonic would win the first set of every match he played until the round of sixteen in Paris, going 6-4 in those matches before Pablo Cuevas took the opener in their Paris clash (which Raonic would go on to win).
Grade: A-
If not for his injuries, this would probably be an A. If Raonic wants to get to number one and win big titles on a regular basis, he needs to be healthy. The Canadian also continues to struggle in big matches, as he failed to beat Djokovic or Murray this year, despite having several leads against the latter. All that being said, this was unquestionably a phenomenal year for the Canadian. He had career firsts and bests aplenty. He was extremely consistent and his game improved tremendously. While 2017 will be interesting as he will be without Moya and McEnroe, if he can pick up where he left off to start 2017, don’t be surprised if he’s holding some big trophies by this time next year.