The time has come. The draw for the Australian Open men’s draw has been released, and the Grand Slam season will officially get underway shortly. Of course, the man to gun down for is obviously world number one and five-time champion Novak Djokovic. With the Serb as the obvious favorite, let’s not forget about some of his main competition to fight his way to a sixth title Down Under.
Andy Murray is the world number two and the second favorite to win the title but has expressed that if his wife is in labor, he’ll be with her rather than playing. Roger Federer at the ripe, young age of 34 is always primed to threaten to win number 18. Rafael Nadal looks like he’s almost back to playing his best tennis, but could he take down the 28-year-old Serb in a best-of-five? Last but not least is Stan Wawrinka. The Swiss has produced three straight world-class matches against Djokovic at the Grand Slam of Asia/Pacific, don’t be surprised if these two meet for a fourth straight time.
It’s time to breakdown the draw and see who makes it out of each quarter as well as the first round matches to watch for.
Novak Djokovic’s Quarter
The Serb is set to face Korean teenage sensation Hyeon Chung. Chung is immensely talented and should use this match as a mark to see where his game is compared to the best. Obviously, he still has time to develop and should push Djokovic at some points, but the 28-year-old should see off the teenager easily.
The first seeded player Djokovic could potentially face is Andreas Seppi. The Italian is most famous for his upset of Roger Federer here last year in the third round. Though many didn’t see the upset coming, it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that at 33, Federer played just below his usual self and someone took advantage of it. We have to give credit where credit is due though, Seppi has challenged the big boys on the big stages, even taking off a set and going ahead a break in another set against Andy Murray at Wimbledon. However, Djokovic should be able to see Seppi off without a problem.
The world number one’s two potential seeded round of 16 opponents are either 22nd-seeded Ivo Karlovic or 14th-seeded Gilles Simon. Both players certainly give Djokovic different looks with the Croat looking to bomb down serves and attack the net while the Frenchman offers variety from the back of the court as a solid baseliner.
Karlovic is the man who has given Djokovic problems in their history with the Croat leading 3-1, though none of those victories have come in a best-of-five setting where Karlovic is going to have trouble to breakdown the Serb’s return. The main problem for Simon is a tricky first round matchup already against Canadian Vasek Pospisil. Canada’s number two has shown flashes of tennis where he shows he can be a consistent second week of a Grand Slam kind of player, but all too often we see him playing subpar tennis losing to players he should be defeating or being uncompetitive in matches against players of his caliber.
Onto the bottom portion of Djokovic’s quarter which begins with ninth-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He has a dangerous first round opponent in Marcos Baghdatis which is a match between two former Australian Open finalists. Potential second round matches against teenager Omar Jasika or a rejuvenated Illya Marchenko could also prove testing to the Frenchman. Should Tsonga get to the third round, he should meet countryman and 17th-seeded Benoit Paire. Paire is a brilliant shotmaker and it would not shock many if he makes it to the round of 16.
Finally the top seeded player in the Djokovic quarter is Kei Nishikori. The seventh-seeded Japanese superstar doesn’t have too many threats in his section of the draw, which contains three qualifiers, but does have a tricky first round showdown with Philipp Kohlschreiber. The German has never lost in the first round of the Australian Open in his 10 main draw appearances, but that streak looks likely to end barring a brilliant performance from the German. 26th-seeded Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is Nishikori’s projected third round opponent, and the seven seed should have no problem seeing him off.
Omar Jasika is the only Australian in this section. There are three Americans in this section highlighted by wild card Noah Rubin. Rubin will face Paire in his opening match, Denis Kudla will face Filip Krajinovic, and Austin Krajicek faces a qualifier.
Quarterfinalist: Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic
First Round Matches to Watch For: Djokovic - Chung, Pospisil - Simon, Paire - Rubin, Tsonga - Baghdatis, Rubin - Paire, Kohlschreiber - Nishikori
Roger Federer’s Quarter
2016 marks Federer’s last grand chance to capture something that has always alluded him, an Olympic gold medal in singles. Though the prospect of that dream is away, the sound of an 18th Grand Slam title seems pretty nice for the Swiss. He opens up the 2016 Aussie Open against Nikoloz Basilashvili. The draw gods were not too kind to the Swiss with a potential second round clash against Alexandr Dolgopolov on the cards. The Ukrainian has immense talent and can definitely push the 17-time Grand Slam champion to four or five sets.
Grigor Dimitrov potentially awaits Federer in the third round in a battle of “Fed - Baby Fed”. The two have met recently at the Brisbane International with the 34-year-old Swiss capturing the match in three high-quality sets. Is it possible for “Baby Federer” to out-Federer, Federer? Could one have potentially snuck in one more Federer in that last sentence? All jokes aside though, that draw is not easy on the four-time champion Down Under. Drawing two top-15 or higher talents in the second and third rounds means he won’t be as fresh as he likes heading into the second week unless he completely destroys these two. With only third round points to defend from last year, the Swiss is under no pressure in these two potential clashes though. All eyes will be on his two competitors, especially Dimitrov should he get there, to see if they could prove their worth on the biggest stage.
Despite David Goffin being the higher-ranked of Federer’s potential round of 16 opponents, he’s not the favorite to get out of his section. Dominic Thiem is seeded 19th compared to Goffin’s 15th, but his game is the one more people will be watching as his one-handed backhand is one many marvel at. However, he a critical first round showdown with Leonardo Mayer of Argentina. Thiem did not get out of the first round last year and is definitely looking to improve on that this year.
This portion of the draw provides the most question marks. Potential tricky second round showdowns for Thiem and Goffin are Nicolas Almagro and Kyle Edmund respectively. The Belgian obviously has clear memory of when he last faced Edmund which was during the Davis Cup Final when the Brit stormed out to a two sets to love lead before squandering it. The young Brit will be looking to make amends to that match by exacting his revenge here. Almagro on the other hand has made the fourth round in four consecutive Australian Opens before his run ended last year so he’s no pushover either.
The potential second round madness carries over into the bottom portion of Federer’s quarter as 12th-seeded Marin Cilic could run into countryman Borna Coric or tricky Spaniard Albert Ramos-Viñolas in the second round. Barring some kind of meltdown, the Croat should get to round two; he faces Thiemo de Bakker in the opening round.
Meanwhile, 24th-seeded Roberto Bautista Agut has first round predicament with mysterious Slovakian Martin Klizan. The 26-year-old has displayed patches of fine tennis, like he did back in the 2012 US Open when he made his lone fourth round appearance, but has had plenty of highs and lows since then. The Spaniard is rock solid from the back of the court and even took a set off Djokovic at the US Open so expect him to get out of that match potentially unscathed. Sam Querrey is his potential second round showdown, but Bautista Agut has already proved he can take out the big American servers, took out John Isner in Auckland, so just using the same strategy against Querrey would help the Spaniard.
Federer’s potential quarterfinalist, Tomas Berdych won’t find himself in any trouble until the third round with a massive showdown against Nick Kyrgios. The young Aussie has the talent to be a top five player or higher but has to get his head on straight. With his home crowd in front of him and his big-time game, does he have the mental fortitude to take down someone of Berdych’s caliber? It’s a tossup to be fair, but I believe that is one match to watch for in terms of upsets.
Quarterfinalist: Roger Federer, Nick Kyrgios
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
First Round Matches to Watch For: Ricardas Berankis - Dolgopolov Thiem - Mayer, Julien Benneteau vs Almagro, Ramos-Viñolas - Coric, Klizan - Bautista Agut, Yoshihito Nishioka - Pablo Cuevas
Stan Wawrinka’s Quarter
The 2014 Australian Open champion is placed at the bottom of his section so we’ll get to him later on. Fifth-seeded and 2009 Australian Open champion Rafael Nadal is at the top part of the section and meets a fellow countryman and rival Fernando Verdasco. These two met in an epic Down Under in the 2009 semifinal where the two battled it out for five sets but ended in the most anticlimactic way with Verdasco double faulting on match point down.
After Verdasco, Nadal should have no trouble defeating his potential second round foe and would meet big-servers Ernests Gulbis or 30th-seeded Jeremy Chardy in the third round. Nadal’s had problem with big servers, especially on faster surfaces like Wimbledon, losing to the likes of Lukas Rosol, Kyrgios, and Dustin Brown. However, Chardy and Gulbis usually have low first percentage numbers so Nadal should not have problems dealing with them. The 30th-seeded Frenchman and Gulbis meet in the first round which would be a thriller to watch, especially if the Latvian is on his game that day.
Nadal is set to clash with a familiar foe if the seeds hold with 11th-seeded Kevin Anderson. Once again, the draw is very favorable for the two third-rounders, Anderson and 23rd-seeded Gael Monfils. Three qualifiers are in this section which many thought Anderson or Monfils should cruise to a third round matchup, but injuries have hampered both men with the South African withdrawing from Chennai and the Frenchman withdrawing from the Hopman Cup which leaves them questionable. Should a potential dangerous qualifier like Kenny de Schepper or Taylor Fritz get placed in this section, look for them to make some noise.
Milos “The Missile” Raonic looks to throw it back to 2014 where he had a breakout season. He’s already kicked his season off with a bang with a title in Brisbane, defeating Federer in the final. After an injury-plagued 2015, Raonic looks primed to pick up right where he left off back in 2014 this season. Viktor Troicki is the man standing in the Canadian’s way for a potential round of 16 showdown with Stan Wawrinka, but the Missile looks to make everyone “Believe in the Sleeve” once again.
Last but not least is the 2014 Australian Open champion, Stan Wawrinka. This man is the only player to beat Djokovic at the Australian in the last five years. His ability to deliver against the Serb is second to none displaying three of the finest matches against him in the last three years. His raw power from the back of the court makes him a massive threat to take the title once again and add a third Grand Slam title to his tally.
American Jack Sock is primed for a deep run in the Grand Slam eventually, but with the Swiss in his third round draw, it looks unlikely. However, if the 25th-seeded American can catch Wawrinka on a rare off day, don’t be surprised to see him in the quarterfinals. Sock must be salivating at the chance to see more points on the board here in Australia after missing the first couple of months last year. An improved backhand and fitness will benefit the American number two this year.
This is the second straight quarter with no Aussies in it meaning the remaining ones will be seen in Andy Murray’s section. Outside of Sock, Rajeev Ram is the only other American and play Anderson in the first round.
Quarterfinalist: Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal
First Round Matches to Watch For: Nadal - Verdasco, Gulbis - Chardy
Andy Murray’s Quarter
Eighth-seeded David Ferrer kicks off the final quarter of the opening major of the season. His section is jam-packed with Aussies, which has three including Lleyton Hewitt who is set to retire after this tournament. If Hewitt gets by fellow countryman, James Duckworth, his matchup with Ferrer would be a classic grinder battle.
Both players are known for their grinding mentality which has helped them get to the top but peaking in different eras has given them different success on the biggest stage. Hewitt is a two-time Grand Slam champion and former world number one while Ferrer has reached a career-high of three and was a finalist at the French Open. Win or lose, a classic thriller on Rod Laver Arena for “Rusty” is the way to go.
Steve Johnson is the other seeded player in this section, which makes three Americans seeded, something we have not seen in a long time. He faces Aljaz Bedene in a classic showdown of the United States - Great Britain.
Servers continue to dominate the top half of Murray’s section with the two-seeded players being 18th-seeded Feliciano Lopez and 10th-seeded John Isner. The Spaniard takes on a qualifier while Isner meets a dangerous for in Jerzy Janowicz. The former Wimbledon semifinalist is a fiery competitor and this could be an upset.
Home hope Bernard Tomic is seeded 16th and faces a tricky opening match against Denis Istomin. Tomic is currently the highest ranked Aussie but retired from his match in Sydney citing a sickness. This section’s seeded players are ones that experience major highs and lows throughout their matches. 20th-seeded Fabio Fognini is the other seed in this section and is the definition of a hit or miss player. There are times Fognini looks like he’s the greatest player ever, and other times he looks like any other player outside the top 50. Which Fognini will show up in round one? We don’t know, but he has a tough first round matchup against the big-serving Luxembourg native Gilles Muller.
The final section has Andy Murray, the second seed and 32nd-seeded Joao Sousa. Sousa plays Mikhail Kukushkin in the opening round while the Brit faces rising star Alexander Zverev. The world number two played the German teen in the Hopman Cup and dispatched him without any problems. Murray has said that if his wife is in labor, he will not be playing in the final should the two coincide. However his wife’s pregnancy and the new-lit fire coming off a Davis Cup victory for Great Britain could help propel Murray to his first ever Australian Open title.
In terms of Aussies, they are all crammed into this one quarter of the draw which will be exciting for the Fanatics to spread out the love. Jordan Thompson plays Thomaz Bellucci in the first round with a potential second round showdown with Steve Johnson awaiting. Matthew Ebden faes Marcel Granollers which would set up a second round match with another American, John Isner. John Millman and Sam Groth are the final two Aussies in the draw. Millman plays Diego Schwartzman, and Groth plays Adrian Mannarino. Millman could meet Fabio Fognini in round two while Groth could meet Murray.
For the Americans, two non-seeded Americans are in this quarter. Comeback kid Brian Baker makes his return to tour-level tennis against Simone Bolelli, and Donald Young meets Santiago Giraldo. Young has a good shot to get to the third round should he get past Sousa or Kukushkin if he makes it to the second round.
Quarterfinalist: David Ferrer, Andy Murray
Semifinalist: Andy Murray
First Round Matches to Watch For: Duckworth - Hewitt, Bedene - Johnson, Janowicz - Isner, Tomic - Istomin, Muller - Fognini, Mannarino - Groth, Zverev - Murray
Semifinals and Finals Predictions
Novak Djokovic defeats Roger Federer
Andy Murray defeats Rafael Nadal
Finals: Andy Murray defeats Novak Djokovic