Mapping Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka: Russia took city as US aid stalls

On Saturday, Ukraine’s top general announced a withdrawal from the eastern city of Avdiivka “in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen." Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed its forces took control of the city's Soviet-era coke fuel plant, a final stronghold in the battle, two days later.

The recent transfer of control in this 12-square-mile area may be the biggest change in the 620-mile front line since Russian troops seized the nearby town of Bakhmut nine months ago in May 2023. But while Russia has celebrated the event as a major victory, Ambassador John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, a Washington, D.C., think tank, suggests otherwise.

"We should not exaggerate the importance of this, just as we should not have exaggerated the importance of the fall of Bakhmut in May of last year. Avdiivka, like Bakhmut, is a city of little strategic value, which took on a symbolic importance, which is why (Russian President Vladimir) Putin was willing to pay the price to take it. And the Ukrainians saw both places as opportunities to inflict massive losses on the Russians, and they succeeded in both cases."

Despite limited strategic value, the battle did force Ukraine to commit soldiers and materiel, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank.

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"It's clearly a victory for Putin, but a very hard-won victory," said Herbst, "the casualties they received, the equipment that was destroyed, were massive. Ukrainians also suffered, but British intel talked, at least as recently as two months ago, about ratios of casualties being at least five to one against the Russians."

Russian forces have been making a “concerted effort” to seize Avdiivka since October, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defence. The city, once home to about 30,000 people, is now completely destroyed. Social media posts by the Ministry claim Russia pounded the city with about 600 bombs in four weeks, as many as 30-50 strikes per day. Ukrainian authorities say they have opened an investigation into alleged shootings by Russian forces of six unarmed Ukrainian soldiers in Avdiivka and two at a village in the same region.

Seth Jones, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, sees Russia's ability to take control of the sky as a key factor in Ukraine's loss. "The Russians used fixed-wing aircraft, which is unusual. They have not been able to do that much, and that's what we do. In any war where we have advancing conventional forces, we would always use air to conduct close air support, especially running air defense. It's been hard for the Russians to use air because of Ukrainian air defense capabilities, aircraft will get shot down. They were effectively able to get control of skies in Avdiivka and it was devastating. SU-34 fighter bombers, SU-27 jet fighters MiG-29s, or some combination of those used in Avdiivka, that was different. Now how much they can do that in other areas, it's an open question."

Jones thinks Russia is shifting to offense, but does not expect battle lines to shift rapidly. "Last year with the Ukrainian offensive, the Ukrainians had the initiative, they were on offense. They didn't make a lot of progress. They did in some places, including in the south. This year so far, I think the Russians have the military initiative, which means they're on offense and we're seeing it on multiple lines, but it's not clear how much progress they're going to be able to make, certainly not quickly."

Avdiivka has been a front-line city since 2014 when Russia-backed fighters invaded and briefly captured it. Ukrainian forces reclaimed control and held the city for almost a decade. Avdiivka is located about 15 miles outside Donetsk, a regional capital which Russia has occupied since 2014.

Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka comes as a roughly $60 billion aid package proposed by President Joe Biden remains blocked by Republicans in Congress. Apart from Avdiivka, Russia is pushing harder in the northeastern Kharkiv region and southern Zaporizhzhia, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Herbst says that Congress' hesitation to fund Ukraine's war effort not only prevented a more successful outcome in Avdiivka but in last year's counteroffensive. "I think it's highly likely, of course, we can't be certain, that if the aid package which was first proposed in September had been approved, this would not have happened."

In addition to concerns about replacing equipment, Jones says that delays in U.S. aid risk reducing Ukrainian morale. "A collapse of support from the United States is something that Ukrainian soldiers on the ground are looking at on their social media devices. It's a huge psychological blow that the Russians are trying to take advantage of through psychological warfare information, disinformation operations, leaflets and other kinds of propaganda that's being broadcast on radio into Ukrainian lines."

Delayed military aid may complicate Ukraine's defense even more, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

Steven Myers, an Air Force veteran who served on the State Department's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy under two secretaries of state, warns that Ukraine’s military capability has been reduced to "tactical pinpricks" with little strategic relevance. 

"It is an unqualified geopolitical catastrophe for the West. Ukraine has been destroyed as a viable nation," Myers told USA TODAY. "Depopulated, with hundreds of thousands of its precious youth dead and crippled, its industrial and agricultural foundations obliterated."

But Herbst says that swift delivery of aid to Ukraine could reverse recent Russian gains in Avdiivka. "The city is not insignificant, but it's of modest strategic importance. But because the Russians have spent five or six months trying to get it, they're celebrating it as if they had taken Berlin," Herbst said.

"I'm not gonna tell you it's a Pyrrhic victory, but it could turn out to be, especially if we wise up and get Ukraine, the aid in that package and the weapons that they need beyond the aid in that package."

Contributing: John Bacon, USA TODAY.

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