Visualizing climate change's wrath: Global warming's dire impact on Earth explored

A dizzying array of weather and water data this summer illustrates alarming changes in Earth's natural systems. Ocean heat waves. Melting glaciers. Record high temperatures. Record low sea ice formations. At times it can be hard to keep track.

"This has been summer unlike any we’ve yet experienced," said climate scientist Michael Mann. "There is a pervasive sense of doom that I have seen among many who are witnessing the onslaught of dangerous and deadly extreme weather events."

Despite the "understandable worry over whether it’s too late, whether we’ve crossed some tipping point," Mann sees "no evidence that things are spinning out of control." Instead, he said, "they’re getting steadily worse as the planet steadily warms in response to our continued burning of fossil fuels."

Follow us through this breakdown of what scientists are watching and where, and what that means.

2023 near-surface air temps are well above average since June

Scientists at the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine gather data from the National Weather Service and elsewhere and generate visualizations to show changes in the planet's climate. One of their telling charts – shared widely on social media – looks at near-surface temperatures.

Daily air temperatures 6.5 feet (2 meters) above the surface by years since 1979:

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"July 4-July 6 of this year, we saw the largest daily global mean temperature increase on record for that day," said the Institute's director, Paul Andrew Mayeski. "There's no doubt that the continents and the oceans are warming."

 Carbon dioxide levels have been steadily rising

Carbon dioxide levels continue to climb in the atmosphere in Hawaii, where monitoring has been ongoing since 1959.

A new record was set in May, Scripps Oceanography geoscientist Ralph Keeling told USA TODAY. The carbon dioxide level averaged 424 parts per million, 3 parts per million higher than the previous May's average and the fourth largest annual increase on record. May was also the highest level ever recorded and June, April, July and March of this year round out the top five according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Data provided by the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory shows the steady climb of mean carbon dioxide levels annually since 1959.

Monthly mean carbon dioxide levels parts per million (PPM) 1958-2022:

2023 sea-surface temperatures off the charts since late March

Around the globe this summer, the oceans are "just astronomically warmer than they should be," said Ben Kirtman, the William R. Middelthon III Endowed Chair of Earth Sciences at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science. "We're shattering records in ways that we haven't shattered them before."

Daily sea-surface temperatures by year since 1982:

Scientists attribute the marine heat waves over more than 40% of the world's oceans to a variety of factors. In the Atlantic, they include:

◾ The ocean has absorbed much of the globe's excess heat caused by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

◾ A weakening in a high-pressure system that expands and contracts over the North Atlantic, which controls the strength of the trade winds and affects evaporation at the surface.

◾ A decrease in seasonal Saharan dust that allowed more sunlight to reach the water.

"We're seeing a ratcheting up of the climate change signal and we're seeing some profound effects in marine ecosystems associated with that," Kirtman said.

The globe is warming at a faster rate since 1970

Aside from the warm summer, the planet has been progressively warming since 1890 according to data collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Analysis of monthly global temperatures compared to the average reveals the shift: June and July of 2023 were the hottest on record, surpassing records set in June and July of 2022.

In the below visual, the rings (temperature anomalies) are much tighter together from 1880 to 1970 compared with the increase in a much shorter time: 1970-2022.

Global temperature anomalies between 1880-2022:

"The climate science world has been warning that these kinds of radical, extreme events are going to become more frequent," Kirtman said. "I think that's what we're seeing."

Sea ice extent near record lows

Mayewski has observed warming in the Arctic, where the extent of sea ice is one of the lowest on record.

"This causes a wavy jet stream where cold air can shoot further south but also allows warm air to push further north," Mayewski said. "Starting in 2015, there have been days in the middle of darkness and the middle of winter where the North Pole has been above freezing."

2023 has had multiple days near record minimum levels for Arctic sea ice extent.

Here are the daily levels compared with the median and 2012, the year with the fewest overall square kilometers of sea ice extent:

"The estimates of when we’re going to see an ice-free September in the Arctic are getting closer and closer, Kirtman said. “It used to be maybe beyond the midcentury. Now we’re talking well maybe it's 2040, maybe it’s 2035.” 

Mann's shortly-to-be-released book "Our Fragile Moment," looks at lessons from Earth's past history and shows times when the climate did spin out of control and others when it showed resilience.

It's "a reminder that if we continue on the path of fossil fuel burning, that could happen," he said. He sees urgency, but agency too. "There’s still time to avert the worst impacts."

The current heat index

Click on the legend to see the forecast for the rest of the week: