Military retaliation in Kashmir: US intel says high possibility of another India-Pak war under Modi regime

The likelihood of a confrontation between India and Pakistan is foreseen in the annual threat assessment report by the US Director of National Intelligence with special concern due to the prospect of an "escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed powers".

Anurakti Sharma

Updated Mar 9, 2023, 20:33 IST

In the event of a terror attack on India or planned 'violent disturbance in Kashmir,' by extremist groups with a base in Pakistan, there have been worries highlighted by a US intelligence report regarding the prospect of India retaliating against Pakistan.

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New Delhi: In the event of a terror attack on India or planned "violent disturbance in Kashmir," by extremist groups with a base in Pakistan, there have been worries highlighted by a US intelligence report regarding the prospect of India retaliating against Pakistan.

The research acknowledged a heightened likelihood of India using military force to respond to "perceived or genuine Pakistani provocations" under Prime Minister Narendra Modi due to Pakistan's history of sponsoring extremist groups.

A militant assault in India or violent unrest in Kashmir are two potential flashpoints, according to the research, which notes that each side's view of rising tensions increases the chance of bloodshed.

The publication of the report coincides with India's harsh criticism of Pakistan after that country's foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, raised the Jammu and Kashmir problem at a UN Security Council (UNSC) discussion on women, peace, and security.

India's Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador, Ruchira Kamboj, called Zardari's remarks "baseless and politically driven" and stated that it was "unworthy" to even respond to such "malicious and false propaganda".

According to a US intelligence analysis, disputes between India and its neighbours, China and Pakistan, have the potential to escalate and demand prompt US action.

It emphasises that the continuous conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become a defining feature of the modern era and that China has the ability to actively try to change the global order by altering standards and maybe posing a threat to its neighbours.

The report also raises the possibility of an armed conflict between China and India, both of which possess nuclear weapons, due to the expansion of their militaries along the disputed border. It emphasises how prior standoffs have demonstrated how quickly tensions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) can rise from a persistently low level.

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