Double attack: What prompted Mamata Banerjee to contest from Nandigram

Even as West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee elevated the spirits of thousands of people in Nandigram on Monday, BJP's state unit chief Dilip Ghosh and the former poster boy of her party, the TMC, Suvendu Adhikari, inflamed the passions of thousands of people in Kolkata, something that would be considered inconceivable two years ago.

There are two questions in everyone's mind. Has Mamata Banerjee taken refuge in a safe seat? Has

Adhikari found his own bastion tough to win and decided to come to Kolkata? There are no easy answer to these. However, one things is clear—Banerjee’s decision to contest the upcoming assembly elections also from Nandigram has scripted a new chapter in West Bengal's politics.

If she were to contest from both the seats—Bhowanipur and Nandigram—she would be the first chief minister of West Bengal, and first top political leader in the state, to do so. Political leaders changing their constituencies is nothing new in the state. Many had done this in the past, when they realised that they would be staring at certain defeat.

After an election in 1972, Jyoti Basu quit his Baranagar constituency, from where he had won all the elections from from 1952 to 1969. The election which he lost was considered to be widely rigged, with the CPI(M) withdrawing from the polls on the day of the elections. Basu never returned to Baranagar, despite the CPI(M) not considering it a defeat.

Somnath Chatterjee left Kolkata after facing defeat at the hands of Mamata Banerjee from Jadavpur constituency and never came back to Kolkata to contest an election. So did Indrajit Gupta, who faced just one defeat in his entire political life. He lost the election in 1977 from Kolkata for supporting the Emergency. Gupta never contested an election from Kolkata since then. 

Legendary communist Hiren Mukherjee too never contested any election after his defeat in 1977, also due to the CPI supporting the Emergency.

Congress stalwart Priyaranjan Dasmunshi left Howrah for good  after facing defeat twice there. 

Critics say these leaders were all emotional people and punished their voters in their own style.

Banerjee’s decision to contest from two seats has surprised many. She had not consulted anyone before taking the decision to contest from Nandigram, although there is the possibility of someone advising her over the phone or by a text message at the last minute. This was evident from the fact that initially, she promised a good candidate for Nandigram during her address. She then paused a bit, looked at her mobile, and said, “I am thinking of contesting from the Nandigram. Is it Okay?” She looked at the general secretary of the party, Subrata Bankshi, and sought his advice. Bakshi, a loyal TMC soldier, said, “I am declaring from this podium that her wish would be fulfilled.” 

Back in Kolkata, the damage had already been done. Ghosh roared at the crowd of BJP supporters in south Kolkata, “She has fled from Kolkata. Bhowanipur would not give her victory anymore.” Adhikari, who was with Ghosh, then promised to quit politics if he could not defeat Banerjee. “I don’t know whether the party would give me ticket from Nandigram or not. If I cannot defeat Mamata Banerjee by at least 50,000 votes, I would quit politics," he said.

The news of Banerjee’s decision to contest the polls from Nandigram did not go down well with many in her party. A senior TMC leader, who did not wish to be identified, said, “Wrong decision. Hope she would change (her decision). This would give a totally wrong signal to people.”

However, Banerjee is worried about the threat posed by the saffron party. Even if the BJP was not a major force to reckon with in Kolkata, in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the TMC was trailing in the Bhowanipur constituency by a good number of votes. The BJP’s Chandra Kumar Bose was the candidate. Same was the case in 2014 when Tathagata Roy was the candidate against the TMC. Roy had lost, but not before taking a good lead. With the BJP going all out this time, Banerjee, though a superstar in Bengal politics, may have found Bhowanipur an uncomfortable seat.

Another argument is that she would like to create a wave in her favour in the western part of the state by announcing her candidature from Nandigram. The Western belt of the state has been under total grip of the BJP as it won the maximum seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. The BJP's Ghosh is from there and now with Adhikari joining forces with him, the duo could potentially demolish the TMC. Banerjee would want to ensure that this does not happen.

A third argument is that her move is aimed at keeping a popular organiser like Adhikari confined to his own belt. Besides being a popular leader, Adhikari is also a good organiser and Banerjee is well aware of this. Her decision to contest the election from there would mean Adhikari remaining in East Midnapore, under which Nandigram falls, most of the time.

The decision to contest from two seats is likely to belittle Banerjee's stature, even if she were to win at least one seat. Besides, anti-incumbency would be cited as a reason for her decision. The damage would be less if she decides to contest from one seat, either Kolkata’s Bhowanipur or Nandigram. At least, this would make people believe that it was an emotional decision.