India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)
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For millennia, the Himalayas constituted a strategic frontier between two dissimilar civilisations. In this presentation, Nitin Pai argues that nuclear weapons are the new Himalayas and the India-China contest has gone beyond the mountains, to the Oceans and beyond. Presented at Bangalore International Centre in June 2010.
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India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)
- 1. The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala Nitin Pai
- 3. Xuanzang in India 629-645 High Tide
- 4. 649 AD The Year China first Invaded India
- 5. 648 : Wang Xuance’s embassy to India 1200 Tibetan warriors 7000 Nepali horsemen 3000 Indians killed 10,000 thrown into river ‘Thereupon, India was overawed.’Standard Tang History
- 6. The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala
- 7. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
- 8. Big differences at a fundamental level Why might this have happened?
- 9. World: Political World: Political Wang framework Ba framework The Middle Kingdom Mindset
- 10. From the earliest times, India lacked interest in the balance of power outside its own national frontiers. While China was continuously watchful of developments across its land frontiers and had developed a very efficient system of diplomatic relationship on a continental basis, the Indian idea of diplomacy was confined to states within the geographical limits of India K M Panikkar
- 11. Harsha’s death Succession struggle Buddhists v Brahmins Politics in Northern India 645 AD
- 12. Songsten Gyampo & Tang Taizong enter into an alliance (641-645)
- 13. 648 : Wang Xuance’s embassy to India 1200 Tibetan warriors 7000 Nepali horsemen 3000 Indians killed 10,000 thrown into river This was a rare event
- 15. 20th century breaches the barrier Large scale troop movements by land and air become feasible
- 16. 1940s 1970s Old barrier comes down New barrier goes up 1960s Clash The 20th Century
- 17. “War is the failure of strategy” Conventional deterrence Nuclear deterrence Risks of a India-US alliance Risks to its economic growth Kautilyan dynamic is still at work, but China is unlikely to want a border war Corollary?
- 18. The game is now globalThe New Raja Mandala
- 19. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
- 20. Dependence on fuel imports Fuel supply cartelised (OPEC, NSG etc) So, diversification, diversification, diversification Energy conundrum Net Oil Import Dependence World Energy Outlook 2009
- 21. 67% 83% 100% 1981-82 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 Exports by Sea Imports by Sea Seaborne trade as % of total trade Most of India’s trade is seaborne Data: Indicus Analytics Markets & Maritime go together
- 23. Energy Security: Infrastructure & Markets
- 24. Singapore & Indonesia will be adversely affected India will sit astride the new route but increased presence of foreign navies An old idea: China’s turn
- 25. China’s trade from Europe, Africa and Middle East could bypass India Possibility that it will be available for shipping for several weeks a year Improves China’s access, but under Russian influence The Northern Sea Route
- 26. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
- 27. Absence Projection Sep 2007 Oct 2008
- 28. Absence Projection Balance of Power in SE Asia Balance of Power in NE Africa Post-tsunami credibility diluted India is a credible player China’s bandwagon strengthens China wants to get in
- 29. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime arms & trade human security Policy implications Outline
- 30. Human security ‘Unconventional’ transnational security threats
- 31. Plausible scenarios Natural Disasters Pandemics Mass political violence/genocide Migration dynamics & global interests introduce political imperative to intervene
- 32. interposes the impact mechanisms of climate change against the ongoing conflict dynamics in South Asia. Conflict system/ Impact mechanism Glacial recession Rising sea levels Extreme weather Net assessment Jammu & Kashmir High - Medium Risk of war, motivated in part by the quest for water resources India-China border High - Medium Risk of natural disasters in India, worsening India-China relations Bangladesh !ethnic invasion" High High High Risk of mass migration into India Pakistani separatism High Medium Medium Risk of existential crisis in Pakistan, and of ethnic conflict Sri Lankan civil war - High Medium Risk of mass migration, and of ethnic conflict Nepal civil war High - High Risk of natural disasters and mass migration into India due to social unrest Table 1: Impact of climate change on ongoing conflicts in the Indian subcontinent Climate change can exacerbate conflict systems
- 33. What it means for military preparedness? Expeditionary capability Strategic partnerships Military co-operation capital Interoperability India must remain a credible provider of human security across its shores
- 34. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
- 35. New spaces Dealing with the asymmetric
- 36. China’s asymmetric strategy Why PLAN has a submarine focused strategy? Why did China shoot down one of its own satellites? Google pulls out of China Why is China selling nuclear reactors to Pakistan? These capabilities can be used to target India too
- 37. Under the new Himalayas The New Raja Mandala power projection markets & maritime new spaces human security Policy implications Outline
- 38. Broadly... The New Himalayas must be high Relative power dynamic suggests India must act as a geopolitical swing power India China US 2004 2009 balance
- 39. Power Projection Pax Indica in the immediate maritime neighbourhood Deep partnerships in the extended maritime domain (footholds, forward bases, supply depots)
- 40. Economic security Promotion of unhindered access to international markets: for fuel, goods & services An open but cautious approach towards IT imports from China is warranted: regulators need help from IT industry
- 41. Military capacity Heavy lift over long distances Amphibious capacity /CIMPCOR Policy review on overseas military deployments
- 42. A foreign policy orchestra Policy coordination: External Affairs + Finance + Commerce + Defence Ministry - eg Can India use G-20 to its advantage? Role of civil society - not just to influence govt, but to act on its own - eg Why are we unconcerned about Balochistan? Lastly, Why isn’t there a Channel !ndia?
- 43. Think about it Thank you