Today you will read : India – China Relations

India and China are the two most populous countries of the world. Both have
maintained consistently an impressive economic growth since they liberalized their
economies. China started economic liberalization in 1978, whereas India followed liberal
economic policies since 1991.

India gained independence in 1947, while China emerged as a new nation after the
communist revolution in 1949. While India moved on the path of democracy and mixed
economy and followed a policy of non-aligned movement in international affairs, China
adopted communist economy and an authoritarian political system.

In 1950’s India supported Chinese membership of United Nations in place of Taiwan

and both raised the slogan of ‘Hindi Chini Bhai-Bhai’ under the Panchsheel agreement
signed in 1954. The five principles of Panchsheel- respect for each others, sovereignty
and territorial integriry, non-aggression, non interference in the internal affairs of each
other equality and mutual benefit and peaceful co-existence.

However in late 1950’s difference arose between the two countries over the status of
Tibet. As a large number of Tibetan refugees came to India and Tibetan exile
government was formed in India, China considered this as an unfriendly act and
launched a full scale war against India in 1962.

China captured 36000 sq mile territory in Aksai chin area of Jammu and Kashmir
which she has not vacated so far. China is also claiming another 90,000 sq km. Indian
territory in Arunachal Pradesh. It did not recognize McMohan line as the valid boundary
between the two countries.

The boundary question has emerged s a most complex issue between the two countries
inspite of various rounds of negotiations in two phases this problem remains unresolved
and a bone of contention between the two. Though both countries have agreed to an
apolitical framework to solve this problem, yet China appears to have developed cold
feet towards this problem as was visible during the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit
to India in December 2010.

What is more surprising is that China has objected to the visit of Indian prime Minister
to Arunachal Pradesh as she considers it to be a disputed territory. It is a normal
practice in China that Arunachal Pradesh is shown as Chinese territory in the Chinese
maps.
It is true that Indo-china trade has improved in recent years as China has emerged as
the largest trading partners of India. Presently the trade volume between the two
countries has reached to the tune of USD 60 billion but India suffers a trade deficit of
USD 20 billion with China, the cheap Chinese electronic goods have flooded Indian
markets, which have become a cause of concern for India. This may prove detrimental to
Indian industry and employment in India in the long run. India has been consistently
raising the issue of trade deficit with China.

Like bilateral engagement the regional engagement between the two in South Asia,
South East Asia and Africa is far from satisfactory. While Pakistan and China have
developed strategic partnership, the latter is providing huge technological and military
assistance to Pakistan which raises eyebrows in India. The Pakistani nuclear programme
and missile development cannot succeed without Chinese technological assistance.

Pakistan provided China with much needed access from POK to Gwader port in India
Ocean. China is developing Pakistan’s Gwader port and has gained direct access to Gulf
of Aden. Similarly, China has gained access to Hambankota sea port in Sri Lanka and is
taking interest in the development and use of Chittagong port in Bangladesh.

China has close military relations with the military rulers of Myanmar and has an eye on
its natural resources. In order to counter balance Chinese influence in Myanmar, India
has also changed her policy and actively engaging with Myanmar’s military junta.

Chinese influence in Nepal has grown up in recent years with the rise of Maoists in
Nepal. Maiost leader, Pushp Kamal Dahal, is highly critical of India and has shown keen
interest in developing close relations with China. Thus, in entire South Asia, China has
followed actively the policy of encirclement of India, which has serious strategic and
security implication for India.

Another regional area of strategic competition between the two is Africa. Though, India
has enjoyed close relations with the African countries during the Cold War, China has
gained ample influence in the region in last 20 years or so. Besides capturing African
markets, Chinese investment and technological support in Africa has risen considerably
in recent years.

The Red Dragon has also taken steps to exploit natural resources (oil) from Africa.
Though, China appears to have gained edge economically viz-a-viz India in Africa. India
still enjoys soft power advantage in the form of goodwill in Africa.
In brief, India and China are engaged in strategic competition in South Asia, South-East
Asia and Africa, but the ongoing Chinese policies in South Asia may take the form of
rivalry as it involves deeper security and strategic interests of India.

In the past twenty years or so, China has emerged as a manufacturing hub of the global
economy, whereas India has achieved significant global place in information technology
and service sector. Both have assumed greater role in the global affairs and management
of global economy.

Both are the leading members of the G-20 grouping, which is emerging as a global
economic management group and is poised to replace rich nation club- G-8. As
members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa) both are predicted to
achieve status of leading global economies by the year 2050, surpassing the US and
European Union.

The combined population of the two countries is one-third of the global population.
Goldman Saachs, which gave the idea of BRICS, predicts that both China and India are
likely to emerge as the two largest consumers of energy resources.

China is a permanent member of the Security Council while India is a potential claimant
of permanent membership in near future. Both have demonstrated to play a crucial role
in the global climate change negotiations as well as well as international trade
negotiations. Infact, the entire debate on the notion of ‘Rise of Asia’ or Asian century
revolves around the rise of India and China in global affairs.

While China has been a long player in South East Asia as a member of ASEAN + three
(China, Japan, and South Korea), India has also gained a foothold in South East in last
decade under her ‘Look East Policy.’ Many observers say that India should avail the
economic opportunity offered by her for India’s economic benefit, while at the same
remaining watchful about her security concern.

It should be noted that inspite of much hype, both India and China are not yet the global
powers. At the most they are emerging global players as both are mainly preoccupied
with the internal and regional issues. Thus, their global world view is greatly influenced
by immediate problems at hand.

The most significant strategic complication arises with the deepening strategic
partnership between the US and India. The peaceful nuclear cooperation deal between
India and the US was not appreciated by China as it ended the global nuclear isolation of
India, without signing the NPT. Also the US a resident power in South East Asia is
encouraging the greater role for India in East Asia.

The strategic partnership between India and China is viewed by China as a balancing act
against her economic and military rise. Thus, the US has emerged as a crucial factor in
Indo- China strategic engagement.

In the long run the global strategic equations are not likely to favour China, although it
is a rising economic power and is making developments in infrastructure, sports,
technology, manpower, military etc. The US, western countries and countries of the
South East Asia may keep an arm length distance with China due to her authoritarian
political system, lack of democracy, human rights and secrecy enveloped in its military
affairs. Thus, inspite of her impressive economic growth China is not in the good books
at the regional and global level, but India is better placed in this respect.

To conclude, the nature of bilateral and regional issues between India and China leads
to the result that both countries are not likely to move in a synergic and cooperative
manner. Their engagement may be either competitive or conflicting or a mixture of both
in the near future.