What if Russia Never Sold Alaska? Here's How the World Would Look Today

This Tuesday Alaskans are celebrating Alaska Day, the anniversary of when what became America's biggest state was transferred to U.S. control from the Russian Empire.

The U.S. purchased Alaska from Russia in March 1867 for $7.2 million in the aftermath of Russia's humiliating defeat at the hands of Britain, France and the Ottoman Empire during the Crimean War. Russian incursions by fur traders had begun more than a century earlier, in the 1740s, though it wasn't till the 1790s that permanent Russian settlements emerged.

On Friday, October 18, 1867, the territory formally passed to U.S. control, though Alaska only gained formal statehood in 1959.

But how different would American and world history have been if Alaska had remained Russian? To answer this question Newsweek reached out to a number of historians with expertise in the field, and some of the answers might surprise you.

Without the U.S. purchase there was general agreement Alaska could have been contested between the Russian and British empires. Had the Russians maintained control, during the Cold War Alaska might have functioned as a Soviet nuclear base, further raising tensions with the U.S.

Hostility to the British Empire

As backdrop to the 1867 purchase Jo Antonson, from the Alaska Historical Society, noted the growing U.S. presence in the region combined with Russia's hostility towards the British Empire.

Antonson told Newsweek: "Russia did not want to sell its Alaska claims to the British after it had been so humiliated in the Crimean War. The countries did, however, agree not to fight that war in the Pacific.

"Russia did not want to keep investing in Alaska, and although the Russian-American Co. could have kept operating the trading posts there would have been increased incursions into the North Pacific, particularly by American traders, than there already was with whalers and cod fishermen."

Professor Songho Ha, a specialist in early American history at the University of Alaska Anchorage, told Newsweek it was far from inevitable that, without the 1867 purchase, Alaska would have fallen under British control.

Asked whether Alaska would have become part of the British Empire, he said: "I think it is possible. However, I am not convinced that the British Empire could have annexed Alaska in the 1860s. The size of the Canadian territory itself was already staggering. I do not know whether an enlarged Canada, including Alaska, would have been a practical option."

Ha is also skeptical of the argument that, minus the U.S. purchase, Alaska could have caused open war between the Russian and British Empires, which were already competing for influence in the Central Asian 'Great Game.'

He said: "I am not sure either country would have considered Alaska as important enough to risk starting a war. If Alaska had been considered so important, Russia would not have parted with it at such a small price."

Base For Soviet Nuclear Weapons

Had Alaska remained Russian, however, Ha argued it could have strengthened American nationalism, functioning as an external threat to unite against.

He said: "Having a foreign enemy nearby, a militarized Russian Alaska, would most likely have bolstered American nationalism. However, such unity might have had the effect of discouraging criticism of the US government."

Both Antonson and Professor Ha agreed that a Russian Alaska could have been used to base Soviet nuclear weapons during the Cold War, raising tensions with the U.S.

Antonson said: "Alaska is important to the U.S. for its coastline on the Arctic Ocean, and was critical for the saber-rattling of the Cold War. As far as putting nuclear weapons here, perhaps. The U.S. had some here."

Asked whether Soviet nuclear weapons could have been based in Alaska, Ha said: "Yes. And I imagine the U.S. would have devoted resources to line the Canadian-Alaskan border with troops and nuclear weapons to deter the Soviets. The U.S. did this in other areas, such as Japan and Korea."

The professor suggested the U.S. could have responded "forcefully" to a Soviet-controlled Alaska during the Cold War, raising the chances of a direct clash between Washington and Moscow.

He said: "Historically, the US has responded forcefully to what it considers dangerous to its territorial safety. American involvement in many wars with the Indigenous peoples, intervention in the Mexican Revolution, and invasions of Cuba bear this out.

"If Russia had maintained its hold over Alaska throughout the twentieth century, the U.S. would most likely have responded forcefully as it did in other places."

'Why Do You Need Alaska?'

In 2014 President Putin said Russia had no interest in taking back the largest U.S. state when asked by an interviewer who said Russians would be "would be very happy to see happen."

"Why do you need Alaska?" Putin said, according to The Washington Post. "By the way, Alaska was sold sometime in the 19th century. Louisiana was sold to the United States by the French at about the same time. Thousands of square kilometers were sold for $7.2 million, although in gold."

He described the purchase as "inexpensive" and said people should "not get worked up about" Alaska.

In July this year two Russian officials raised the possibility of returning Alaska to Russia. Vyacheslav Volodin, an ally of Putin and chairman of the State Duma, said Russia could reclaim the territory in response to sanctions imposed by the West after the Ukrainian invasion.

"When they [U.S. lawmakers] attempt to appropriate our assets abroad, they should be aware that we also have something to claim back," Volodin said, according to the Associated Press.

Volodin had previously suggested that Moscow could seize the Russian assets of "hostile" countries in retaliation for a U.S. proposal to sell off seized oligarchs' assets to rebuild Ukraine, according to The Moscow Times.

This month two Russians were detained after arriving by boat on Alaska's St. Lawrence island.

St. Lawrence is about 37 miles from the Russian mainland and is closer to that country than it is to the rest of Alaska.

The U.S. and Russian coast guards have previously agreed to work together to monitor pollution incidents and maritime safety in the Bering Sea.

On October 12 Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, said U.S. forces in the state are keeping Putin "in check," and "shooing them away" when his military approaches U.S. territory.