Naxal violence: 29 Rebels shot in Chhattisgarh’s Kanker; focus is back on Maoists menace and way forward

New Delhi: Bastar’s Kanker district (about 264 km south of Raipur, the capital city of Chhattisgarh) witnessed another shootout on Tuesday where at least 29 Naxals, including a top commander, were killed and three members of government forces wounded in a gunfight. Prior to this, the first four months of 2024 have seen 74 people lose their lives in Maoist violence in the region, which incidentally goes to polls on April 19. While voting in the Naxalite-hit Bastar Lok Sabha seat will take place on April 19 in the first phase, the Kanker constituency, will vote in the second round of general elections on April 26.

According to the police, they have recovered a huge quantity of arms and ammunition from the spot, including AK-47, INSAS and LMG rifles.

Following the incidence of violence that shook Kanker, Union home minister Amit Shah, on Tuesday, congratulated the security forces  and reiterated that Naxalism has been “confined to a small area due to the offensive policy of the government and the efforts of security forces.” Shah also remarked that soon Chhattisgarh and entire India will be completely Naxal-free. “Under the leadership of Prime Minister Shri @narendramodi ji, we are determined to free the country from the scourge of Naxalism,” Shah said.

Currently, Naxals are active across the central and eastern parts of India. The Naxal violence in the Chhattisgarh region has posed significant challenges and has had detrimental effect on various aspects of society, economy and governance as a whole. The ongoing conflict has led to a cycle of violence, causing immense suffering and grief for families affected by the violence in this part of the country. However, the Maoist violence has seen a sharp decline of over 52 per cent over the last decade.

Naxalism will be routed in three years: Amit Shah

Often referred to as India’s biggest internal security challenge, the Maoist insurgency, which started in the 1960s, has claimed over 12,000 lives, according to estimates from security agencies and NGOs. Maoist rebels, not numbering more than 15,000, have been waging their war against the Indian state for over a decade and their presence was once felt in nearly a third of India’s 640 districts.

Naxal violence has hindered the development initiatives in the affected regions. It discourages investment and has disrupted infrastructure projects hence creating an environment of instability that impedes growth and prosperity. Although there has been a noticeable decline of Naxal pockets within the country and even the violence caused has been met with counter offensives, there is still a dire need to arrest all possible activities. All efforts have been made to ensure this happens.

Amit Shah, on January 20, had asserted that the country will be free from the menace of Naxalism in the next three years. Highlighting that the problem was confined only to certain pockets of Chhattisgarh, Shah had stressed the need for a detailed road map to be drawn up by all the concerned stakeholders, particularly relating to the targeting of the entire ecosystem sustaining LWE.  In 2023, Shah had said that the Centre was working towards eliminating the Maoist problem by 2024.

Advantage security forces during peak summer months

One big reason why we could minimise loss of lives and livelihoods due to rebel violence is that our security officers can now successfully counter the peak summer month violence. It has been a trend that Naxal attacks on security forces increase between March and June when the rebels carry out what officials term as the ‘Tactical Counter Offensive Campaign’ (TCOC). They carry out most of the offensives during summer as tall grasses and bushes dry up during the season, providing clear visibility to them about the movement of security forces in forests.

But, various camps set up in Naxal strongholds by security forces in the last three years have helped the latter gain the upper hand against the rebels. A trend that was witnessed in the summer months of 2023.

Why has Maoist violence subsided in India?

Incidents of Maoist violence in India has dropped by 77 per cent between 2009 and 2021 — while left-wing extremism incidents decreased from 2,258 to 509 in the same period, according to home ministry data. Moreover, there have been fewer deaths of civilians and security forces, down by almost 85 per cent, from an all-time high of 1,005 in 2010 to 147 in 2021. The epicentre of Maoist violence, also appears to be petering out elsewhere. The geographical spread of the violence has also reduced to 46 districts today — compared to 96 districts in 2010.

As the threat posed by Maoists has been reduced, it could be an opportune time to start a dialogue for a complete closure. Central India is at a stage where peace can be negotiated like Nepal or Colombia, believe experts.

Some notable reasons why the Maoist violence has seen a downward trend can be summarised as under:

1. Deep cracks within: Some experts have also opined that the once-formidable insurgency appears weakened and dispirited as the group is experiencing deep cracks within. Many of the guerrilla outfit’s leaders, have either died or surrendered over the years.
2. Ill health and seniority is hampering: Home ministry officials point out that at least 15 of the 24 members in the Maoists’ central committee and politburo are over 60 years of age and the recent COVID pandemic, coupled with vector-borne diseases in the jungles had weakened them.
3. Cadres deserting the rebels: Mid-level leaders are increasingly deserting the movement. States affected by left-wing extremism have put in place a policy that unites police action with economic development that has breached several Maoist strongholds. The security forces have succeeded in capturing more than 8,000 active cadres in the last four years, while an equal number of Maoists have surrendered before authorities.
4. Developmental work in inhospitable terrains have also helped: There has been a fair share of success in terms of affecting the Maoists’ basic capabilities and capacities.

These factors combined with adept government effort would make it a possibility to see incidents of Maoist violence and deaths in India dropping even more drastically, pointing to waning rebel influence.