1. Introduction
Parents in China prize education because school grades play a critical role in deciding employment prospects [
1]. In the highly competitive college admission exam system (“gaokao” in Chinese), for instance, a comprehensive grading generally includes tests of Chinese literature, mathematics, and English, as well as tests of history, politics, and geography for liberal arts majors and tests of physics, chemistry, and biology for science majors. As a result, many parents, particularly those from high-income households [
2], feel compelled to enroll their children in private tutoring to improve their academic performance [
3], and Chinese school-aged children drown in private tutoring sessions every year.
In accordance with the Chinese government’s goal, a fully developed Chinese youth should be not only bright and morally upright but also possess strong physical fitness and artistic sensibility [
4]. In July 2021, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the General Office of the State Council jointly announced the “Opinions on Further Reducing the Burdens of Homework and Off-campus Training for Students During the Period of Compulsory Education” (hereinafter referred to as “Double Reduction” policy) [
5]. The policy aims at easing the burden and anxiety of Chinese parents who wish to provide their children with a competitive education. Broadly, the policy can be considered as a part of the “Health China 2030” plan [
6], a long-term national strategy to promote public health and a strong nation.
The “Double Reduction” policy resulted in a radical transformation of the Chinese education market. For instance, the New Oriental Education & Technology Group, a NASDAQ-listed Chinese private tutoring company, saw its share price decline by 54.2% in a single day immediately following the policy’s announcement. One year after the announcement of the policy, the Ministry of Education reported that the number of private tutoring institutions in traditional academic subjects had been drastically reduced, with the proportion of offline institutions decreasing by 95.6% and the proportion of online institutions decreasing by 87.1% [
7]. In the meantime, China’s sports education market has experienced explosive growth, and Chinese households are becoming increasingly aware of the need for quality sports education to promote child development and lifelong health [
8].
The Chinese government’s commitment to sports and people’s health has exceeded all other historical eras, and the implementation of the “Double Reduction” policy represents a generational opportunity for the sports education market. Currently, however, the sports education market does not meet the requirements for high-quality education, and numerous challenges need to be resolved. Shortly after the policy shift, both industry and academic groups exhibited a great deal of interest in exploring the sports education market. Wang et al. [
9] suggested that the current sports education market has issues such as unclear positioning of the role of governing bodies in industry regulation, low bar to market access and coaches’ qualification certification, and disorderly establishment of institutions necessitated by the addition of physical education to the middle school examination. Chai et al. [
10] highlighted the dilemma of the current sports education market in five aspects: administrative barriers impede the efficacy of relevant policy implementation; absence of regulatory bodies results in ineffective market supervision; lack of industrial standards impedes the standardization of sports education operations; ineffective instructors reduce the quality of education services; and lack of supervision decreases the business’s efficiency. To our knowledge, no research has been published that surveys market participants to explore the high-quality development strategy of the sports education market. Moreover, recent studies have explored the sports education market from a qualitative perspective [
11,
12], and no published research employs quantitative research to guide the development strategy of the sports education market.
SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis is a qualitative framework used to evaluate the competitive position of the program, organization, and industry and to draw future strategies [
13]. The SWOT analysis facilitates administrators to examine their internal environment’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as the external environment’s opportunities and threats, and then to develop plans to maximize opportunities and strengths while minimizing weaknesses and threats. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a quantitative decision-making technique [
14]. AHP organizes lists of factors into a hierarchical structure and ranks the factors through pairwise comparison. With this quantitative method, it is possible to assess the relative importance of factors and to propose a factor analysis that is less biased. Given the unique strengths of SWOT and AHP approaches, Kurttila et al. [
15] proposed a hybrid SWOT-AHP analysis for the decision-making process, which has since been applied to the strategic development of numerous businesses, including sports management [
16].
Even though the “Double Reduction” policy has only been in place for a year, its influence on the Chinese education market and its long-term implications on Chinese society cannot be overstated. Contrary to this policy context, no systematic quantitative market research exists for this highly specialized non-traditional education market and for decision-makers to analyze and apply for superior business management. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to identify both internal and external factors that influence the sports education market in Changsha and Tianjin, then to establish a strategic development model based on a strategic vector method, and finally to recommend tailored business management strategies in the new era of “Double Reduction” policy.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Methodological Overview
We devised a three-step research approach based on the SWOT-AHP theory of strategy selection. First, we investigated the internal and external factors of the Chinese sports education market using the SWOT framework to identify its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. This study’s SWOT analysis incorporated both a review of the literature and actual surveys of market participants. Second, the AHP approach was used to establish a hierarchy with the first and second classes, to execute pairwise comparisons, and to assume comparative weights of each factor and total intensities of SWOT groups. Third, the strategic vector method was used to generate a SWOT-AHP strategic selection model, after which the development strategy was presented. This study utilized yaanp version 12.6 (metadecsn.com, accessed on 28 September 2022) for its AHP analysis. The research protocol was approved by the Ethical Committee of Tianjin University of Sport, and all participants gave informed consent to participate in the survey research.
2.2. SWOT: Survey
Initially, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the various factors proposed to influence the Chinese sports education market. Two self-structured surveys were conducted to increase the adaptability and accuracy of SWOT analysis following the announcement of the “Double Reduction” policy. The managers of sports education institutions in Changsha and Tianjin were asked to perform a SWOT analysis. These managers are instructors and business administrators. They have specialized knowledge of business operations and marketing, as well as an understanding of the current market’s structural advantages, disadvantages, and gaps. A second SWOT survey was issued to parents in Changsha and Tianjin who selected sports education for their children. Consumers were also interviewed because their opinion could provide more diverse perspectives on the current situation of the sports education market. From April 2022 to June 2022, survey responses were gathered through an internet survey platform (wjx.cn, accessed on 12 November 2022). In total, 30 surveys were given to managers, and 30 valid surveys were collected; additionally, 251 surveys were given to parents, and 251 valid surveys were collected. Cronbach’s alpha values for the manager survey and the parent survey were 0.73 and 0.97, respectively. By utilizing descriptive analysis of the collected survey data, we obtained market participants’ perspectives on the current business state of the sports education market.
2.3. SWOT: Factors Generation
Although it is desirable to include a thorough list of factors throughout the decision-making process, it is advised that the number of SWOT factors is kept to a reasonable number for the subsequent AHP pairwise comparisons [
17]. In a hybrid SWOT-AHP study, it is advised that the number of factors within each SWOT group not exceed 10 [
18]. Based on the literature review and the findings of two surveys of market participants, we used the Delphi technique to construct a total of 16 SWOT factors that we believe represent the significant advantages and drawbacks of the current sports education market adequately. Then, these factors were organized into a hierarchical structure (
Figure 1).
2.4. AHP: Decision-Makers
AHP is a mathematical approach developed to survey experts, such as decision-makers, with specialized expertise in a particular field [
15]. Thus, the selection of experts is a crucial component of a successful AHP. In this study, a rigorous criterion was used to choose decision-makers. First, decision-makers must have a comprehensive understanding of the sports industry. Since the announcement of the “Double Reduction” policy, numerous organizations that formerly operated in the non-sports education field have shifted their business coverage to the sports education market. However, those decision-makers lacked the necessary knowledge and qualifications in sports and were therefore excluded from the sampling process. Second, the selected decision-makers must have been registered with their business for at least two years; managers of newly founded sports education institutions following the introduction of the “Double Reduction” policy were excluded from the sample procedures. Accordingly, we ensure that the selected decision-makers have appropriate knowledge of the sports education market and can therefore provide a more accurate and authoritative perspective on the present market. In addition, SWOT–AHP analysis can be conducted with a small sample of subject-matter experts [
18], unlike standard statistical analysis, which relies on a sufficient sample size to generate enough statistical power. Between October 2022 and November 2022, five decision-makers from sports education institutions in Changsha, Hunan Province, participated in the AHP survey. Their professional background is detailed in
Table 1.
2.5. AHP: Comparative Weight
Decision-makers were required to carry out pairwise comparisons. By using Saaty’s nine-point scale [
14], the decision-makers evaluated the relative importance of each factor between SWOT groups and factors within each group. The algebraic matrix of pairwise comparisons is as follows:
where
aij is the relative importance of
i to
j,
aij = 1/
aij, and
aij = 1 if
i =
j.
Because humans are prone to making inconsistent decisions, the AHP technique depends on the consistency ratio (
CR) to validate experts’ judgment in pairwise comparisons [
18]. The estimate of the pairwise comparisons’ consistency is as follows:
where
CI is the consistency index;
λmax is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, which was computed by yaanp; and
RI is the random index generated for a random matrix of order
n. For the matrix to be consistent,
CR must be maintained below 0.1 as a general rule [
14]. The aggregate weight can be computed by multiplying the factor weight by the corresponding group weight.
2.6. AHP: Factor Intensity
While weight reflects the relative importance of each SWOT factor, determining the priority of a strategy based only on AHP weights oversimplifies the decision-making process. As such, this study assessed the intensity of each SWOT factor. The same five decision-makers were asked to estimate the factor strength based on their individual preferences. The assessment was based on a scale of 1 to 4 points, with perceived economic benefits serving as the control criterion. The strengths and opportunities factors are indicated by positive values, whereas the weaknesses and threats factors are indicated by negative values; the greater the absolute value, the higher the strength. Then the intensity of each factor is computed as follows:
where
,
,
, and
represent the mean strength estimated by all decision-makers for the corresponding SWOT factors.
n1,
n2,
n3, and
n4 are the total factor number in each SWOT group.
,
,
, and
are the weight of each factor in the corresponding SWOT groups.
2.7. SWOT-AHP: Strategic Vector
The strategic vector (
θ,
ρ) method consists of the strategic azimuth (
θ) and the strategic coefficient (
ρ). The strategic azimuth is based on the coordinates of the center of gravity of the strategic quadrilateral
P(
X,
Y). The point
P(
X,
Y) can be calculated:
By using the inverse trigonometric functions, the strategic azimuth can be calculated:
Based on the strategic azimuth, the type of strategic development model can be established (
Table 2).
The strategic coefficient is measured by the distance between the origin of the coordinate system and the center of gravity of the strategic quadrilateral
P(
X,
Y). The strategic coefficient can be calculated as follows:
In general, if ρ is more than 0.5, a pioneering development strategy should be implemented; otherwise, a conservative development strategy should be implemented.
4. Discussion
To our knowledge, this is the first SWOT-AHP analysis of the sports education market in China since the “Double Reduction” policy was announced. A recent study on the structural weaknesses of the sports education market [
12] is consistent with the conclusions from the present SWOT analysis. Based on the strategic vector, the strategic development model is placed in the striving zone of the adjustment type, indicating that a conservative business strategy should be implemented at this point. This suggestion is consistent with the current macro environment. When capital is indiscriminately rushing into the sports education market, “survival” in the first wave of capital rivalry requires more rigorous business planning. Moreover, while the Chinese government has created a capital market conducive to innovation, credit growth has slowed as a result of COVID-19 and geopolitical uncertainty, meaning that lending in private sectors is skewed toward the risky side despite the PBOC’s reduction in the loan prime rate since 2022. Therefore, a conservative management strategy is necessary for the stability of the current market development. In light of this, we propose four novel strategies for optimizing business management for a sustainable sports education market.
SO strategy: Nowhere has the digital economy become as deep in every aspect of society as in China [
46]. Market participants must integrate the digital economy into the sports education market and put more priority on building digitized platforms for campuses, communities, and households. A digitized industry could not only alleviate the instability of resource allocation in the sports education market but also enlarge the consumer base while adopting social media and public opinion oversight. Moreover, market makers should invest much more in VR content in specialized sports education. VR training has already demonstrated great promise in the rehabilitation of Parkinson’s disease patients [
47], and similar training should be extended to other types of lifestyle diseases (e.g., Alzheimer’s disease) among the elderly Chinese population. The sports education market is not confined to youth, and with an aging Chinese society [
48], the application of VR sports education in communities targeting the senior population could considerably expand the non-traditional consumer base and demonstrate corporate social commitment to the “Health China 2030” goal.
WO strategy: There have been more institutions since the announcement of the “Double Reduction” policy, and it is expected that more capital will join this high-growth sector. On the one hand, more institutions represent that consumers could have plentiful options in the future; on the other hand, it also indicates that the market competition is going into core competitiveness. Competition-based pricing is a temporary solution and not an optimal strategy [
49]. Instead, the future pricing strategy should be tailored to the value of the content offered to consumers as well as the sustainability of the business operation. Given the increasing disposable income of Chinese households, institutions should confidently price their original and high-quality content higher than their competitors, and Chinese parents are more likely to prioritize quality over price, even when selecting expensive property [
50]. We place special emphasis on original content, which should eventually evolve into original IP and create a brand effect. Institutions that focus on preschool sports education, for instance, could create scientifically rigorous curricula [
51] and advertise the content’s lifelong advantages. Not only does value-based pricing represent a premium for intellectual output, but it could also increase institutions’ revenue. In turn, institutions could hire more competent sports workers who could teach and create more IP, developing a positive feedback loop for career development, business growth, and the industry’s overall sustainability.
ST strategy: One of the unique characteristics of sports education is that it serves both young children and senior individuals, as both populations are physically vulnerable. Given this, policymakers should urgently regulate the market in the following areas. First, all parts of emergency preparedness should be improved, including mandated first aid certification for all training staff, institutional first response protocol, and optional equipment such as an automated external defibrillator [
52]. Non-certified institutions should be considered ineligible businesses and not be permitted to operate. Second, even though sports education is considered private tutoring and may not require the mandatory teaching certification required for public schools, it is still vital to perform background checks on all staff members involved in youth education. Relevant government ministries and legal organizations should establish strict industry access background checks for individuals with misconduct or civil cases that may be deemed to pose a threat to early childhood education. Third, all trainees are strongly encouraged to obtain third-party insurance coverage. In a modern market framework, commercial insurance could be the last line of defense in the event of a serious personal injury sustained during sports education. Only until all layers of regulatory mechanisms are in place could the market expand steadily.
WT strategy: All of the weaknesses and threats identified in this SWOT-AHP analysis indicate that there is a dearth of qualified sports management professionals on the market. In contrast to qualified sports instructors, who may be hired from a pool of sports pedagogy graduates and professional athletes, sports managers require a comprehensive education over several years. In this regard, this gap severely hinders the high-quality development of the current sports education market. As far as we are aware, a few specialist institutions of higher education, including one in Changsha, are being set up to educate sports management experts. While there will be a lagged effect, we believe that many, if not most, of the current obstacles could be addressed in the coming years, and a high-quality sports education market is on the horizon.
5. Limitations
This study was limited by the use of regional samplings to ascertain the strategic vector. While our recommendation to design a conservative strategy is likely reasonable given the current macro environment, regional agglomeration in China’s educational resources is a well-known issue [
53] and may thus necessitate different regions to adopt differentiated strategies. In this study, Changsha and Tianjin are both megacities with robust population bases and consumers with higher margins to support the creation of high-quality sports education content such as VR training and new IP. Business administrators operating in highly developed economic zones, such as East China and the Jing-Jin-Ji region, should consider our recommendations to enhance their core competitiveness through the use of new technology and interactive media. While consumers in developing regions of China may be more sensitive to pricing and demand for excellent basic sports education, business administrators at this development stage should prioritize organized operating structures and qualified human capital to maintain reasonable medium-term margins.
Moreover, this hybrid SWOT-AHP analysis not only compensates for limitations in existing qualitative research but also provides a systematic framework for future studies to conduct analogous quantitative research in other regions of China. Therefore, it is suggested that Chinese researchers adopt this straightforward and reasonably objective methodology and undertake additional SWOT-AHP analyses of the sports education market in other locations. With additional research methods such as the difference-in-differences model, it is possible to horizontally compare the development circumstances of different regions and summarize more precise and comprehensive strategies for the high-quality development of the Chinese sports education market.
6. Conclusions
This study shows that the strategic azimuth is 157.5° and the strategic coefficient is 0.49, placing the vector within the adjustment type for the striving zone. Accordingly, a conservative business strategy is recommended for the sports education markets in Changsha and Tianjin.
The findings of this study are of significant implications for the ongoing development of the sports education market under the “Double Reduction” policy and serve as a useful basis for policymakers and nationwide enterprises planning a sustainable market. Despite its high growth, the market is inadequately regulated. During this phase, government regulation will play a crucial role in guiding the market, and through standardization and legalization, market participants will be able to avoid disorderly competition. The lack of specialized land for sports education is dragging the market’s growth, which would also delay the broad objectives planned in the National Fitness Program and “Healthy China 2030.” Under these conditions, the local People’s Governments should take the initiative to provide policy incentives to private investors for new land construction permits, share existing sports courts in public schools with the general public, and coordinate a digital platform to precisely monitor land use of in real-time to maximize land use efficiency.
While the market development is boosted by both policy tailwind and monetary easing now, any existing and new market participants should rigorously evaluate their short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals before spending large sums of money in this highly competitive industry. The short-term objective should be applicable to all market participants, namely the recruitment of well-trained sports talent for childhood education and the improvement of emergency preparedness. The medium-term objective should be to constantly invest in research and development of exceptional educational content while maintaining a healthy profit margin. Finally, China is a socialist country with Chinese characteristics. A business that seeks long-term growth should align its philosophy with the people-centered development philosophy of the Chinese government.
In conclusion, this study and views center around the SWOT-AHP analysis and provide a scientific framework for future research to be undertaken in other regions of China. We hope our strategies can steer the market into a sustainable path to promote the transition to a high-quality economy and population health at the national level.