Frank Geerkens’ Post

India is unlikely to achieve the 8%-10% economic growth rates that China pulled off over the long term, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia economist said, even though the investment bank remains optimistic about the South Asian nation’s prospects. India’s economy will likely grow steadily at 6.5%-7% over the long term, Chetan Ahya said in interview Monday with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda Amin. The South Asian nation is also far from replacing its bigger rival as a global manufacturing hub, he added. China’s growth averaged 10% a year in the three decades after its economic reforms in 1978, official figures show. https://lnkd.in/gvNRy-dv

Gear Up India ! We know, India is the fastest-growing economy which is projected to reach 6.2% in 2024 - And, is poised to overtake both Japan and Germany in terms of economic output, with estimates placing the shift in 2026 and 2027, respectively. So now multinationals are looking at India as an alternative manufacturing base for developed economies for their supply chain diversification strategies. #tidbits #indiafastestgrowingeconomy #Worldeconomicsituationreport #manufacturinghub #opportunityforindia Courtesy - World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 report & International Monetary Fund

How strong is India’s economy? https://lnkd.in/dRJttScK from The Economist India, the world’s fastest-growing big country, is expanding at an annual rate of 6-7%. New data show private-sector confidence at its highest since 2010. Already the fifth-largest economy, it may rank third by 2027, after America and China. India’s clout is showing up in new ways. American firms have 1.5m staff in India, more than in any other foreign country. Its stockmarket is the world’s fourth-most-valuable, while the aviation market ranks third. India’s purchases of Russian oil move global prices. Rising wealth means more geopolitical heft. After the Houthis disrupted the Suez canal, India deployed ten warships in the Middle East. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have courted it without disputing that it will remain an independent actor.

While China's growth is projected to slow to 4.6% in 2024 and decline further in the medium term, India's economy is expected to remain resilient, growing at 6.5% in both 2024 and 2025. #RepublicBusiness #IndianEconomy #ChineseEconomy #AsiaPacific https://lnkd.in/gB7jVkfm

Chinas deflation: what does it mean for India? What happens in the world's second-largest economy matters beyond its borders, too. Despite it being eight months since China's economy abandoned its zero covid policy and shoppers and tourists were allowed to roam free there is weak growth and deflation is the result. But what does this mean for us? Core inflation in India: price changes of goods and services excluding the volatile food and energy sectors. Vicious cycle of decreasing economic activity: Decreasing prices of Chinese goods could lead to lower prices of Indian goods. This is because Indian businesses compete with Chinese businesses in many markets. If Chinese goods become cheaper, Indian businesses will have to lower their prices in order to remain competitive. This could lead to lower profits for Indian businesses which leads to lower investment, which leads to lower demand, which again leads to lower prices and could even lead to job losses. China remains one of the biggest importer of iron ore from India. The east Asian country imports almost 70% of Iron-ore from India. Therefore, a slower economy for China would mean the amount of import into China could fall. The could direct us to diversify our sourcing by, reducing dependency on a single market. How can we leverage this? Cheaper imports: A weaker yuan will make Indian imports cheaper, such as electronics, machinery, and chemicals. This could boost consumption and help to offset the impact of lower exports. The Potential Manufacturing Hub: China's decelerating economy and deflation have opened a window of opportunity for India to emerge as the next manufacturing hub. Developed economies have waited to diversify their supply chains away from China's monopoly-like grip on the manufacturing sector. India, with its young labor population and improving infrastructure, can capitalize on this shift by accelerating economic reforms that attract foreign investments. With schemes like PLI (Production Linked Incentive) we can boost domestic manufacturing and reducing the cost of production. Political Influence: Majority of the South Asian economies -Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan are facing crises and have been dependent on aid from China. But now given their own crisis India has been providing aid to all these troubled economies, which could help the country assert itself as a political power in Asia. India could convert this challenge into an opportunity by seeking imports from other countries. It will help India rely less on China over the years. India could also build capabilities to make these products locally over time. Overall even countries who took loans from China for large infrastructure projects may turn back toward other lending institutions like the World Bank, or other countries despite their more stringent requirements. #china #india #economics #geopolitics

While some international companies are opening manufacturing plants in India, the long-term growth of the economy seems positive. Looking at the manufacturing industries in terms of employee skills China is ahead of India. According to a report by Fitch Solutions India's consumer market is set to become the 3rd largest by 2027, as there seems to be a rise in the middle to high-income households. Last year India overtook the UK to become the world's 5th largest economy. Recently S&P Global predicted that India will drive Asia's growth within the next few years. As things remain slow in China, especially with the real estate crisis. Recently China stated that from 01 December 2023 to 30 November 2024, 6 countries will be able to enter China visa-free for a period of 15 days. The BBC brings an insightful read on that👇 https://lnkd.in/gRy43Wch S&P brings an insightful 3 page report "China Slows, India Grows"👇 https://lnkd.in/g8BDQure The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that India's GDP in 2026 would be $4.95 trillion & by 2027 $5.43 trillion. And as per the IMF's forecast China's GDP in 2026 would be 21.06 trillion & by 2027 $22.29 trillion. Furthermore, in terms of the world's largest economies India is forecasted to take Japan's place as the 4th spot in 2026 & Germany's third spot by 2027. China in the meantime will keep its second place behind the US. Looking at the short to mid-term there is no threat to China's manufacturing industry, but if looking at the long-term with geopolitical tensions the economy might face challenges. #india #china #apac #asia #economics #trade #geopolitics #gdpgrowth

The future of India. India's future holds significant promise as it is poised to become a defining force in the global economy. According to the World Economic Forum, India could emerge as the world's third-largest economy within the next five years and aims to become a developed nation by 2047. This growth is expected to be driven by inclusive, sustainable economic growth, digital development, and climate action. The country's recent assumption of the G20 presidency highlights its growing economic prowess and diplomatic finesse. Moreover, India's commitment to a rule-based international order and its advocacy for collaboration to address common issues further solidify its position as a stabilizing force in the global geopolitical landscape. In the realm of technology, India is making significant strides. It is predicted that by 2024, India will have the world's largest app developer population, overtaking the United States, and will invest heavily in solar energy projects across Asia. The Indian-US partnered NASA-Isro Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission, aimed at studying ecosystem changes, is a testament to India's technological ambitions. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to roll out its central bank digital currency, which will further enhance India's position in the digital economy. Economically, India is on track to see real salary increases and is expected to invest significantly in energy as electricity demand rises, being the world's third-largest energy consumer. The government's plan to invest $60 billion to build a national gas grid by 2024 reflects its commitment to cutting carbon emissions and transitioning to cleaner energy sources. India's potential as a global economic power is also recognized by analysts, with predictions that it could become the world's second-largest economy by 2075. Its purchasing power is expected to be 30% larger than that of the U.S. by 2050, indicating a significant shift in the global economic landscape. These developments suggest that India is not only focusing on economic growth but also on sustainable and inclusive development. The country's actions in the coming years will likely lay the groundwork for a future that balances economic advancement with environmental stewardship and social equity. India's journey towards becoming a global leader in various sectors is a narrative of resilience, strategic planning, and forward-thinking, which will undoubtedly shape its trajectory in the decades to come.

China and India are both touted as future economic superpowers to rival the West, and both have intriguing investment opportunities. However, recently we've witnessed a shift with India increasingly perceived as the more attractive growth opportunity, writes Andrew Cheung, Investment Analyst at EQ Investors. #investmentplanning #InvestmentOpportunities

Now INDIA is Young and restless... In 1700 India’s economy was the world’s biggest. But its share of global output declined throughout the colonial era and in 1993, after a financial crisis, hit a humiliating low of 1% when measured using market exchange rates. Since then it has grown fast.. India’s economy will boom “The dynamism in the market, the vibrancy, are unbelievable…India is at a tipping point.” Tim Cook, Apple’s boss. Few visitors can expect the sort of welcome Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, will receive in Washington later this month. Joe Biden, America’s president, is throwing a formal banquet for him at the White House. The leaders of the two chambers of Congress, not to be outdone, have invited him to address a joint session for the second time—an honour previously accorded only to the likes of Winston Churchill. The visit will, in the words of a gushing White House press release, “affirm the deep and close partnership between the United States and India”. The fact is , the partnership between India and America has never been closer.. America’s leaders, both Republican and Democratic, would like it to be very close. They see India as an indispensable accomplice in their rivalry with China. India recently became the world’s most populous country. Its foreign policy has become more assertive and more hostile to China of late, even if it remains opposed to the idea of an American-led order. Its diaspora is the world’s biggest, and remarkably influential. India’s allure, its economy starting to fulfil its potential. It is already the world’s fifth-biggest. Mr Modi has promised growth of a sort that would turn it into a pillar of the world economy, on a par with America, China or the European Union. . INDIA needs to keep growing at roughly its present pace. Goldman Sachs projects India’s gdp will overtake the euro area’s in 2051 and America’s by 2075. India’s heft is growing in other ways, as well: its stockmarket is the fourth-biggest after those of America, China and Japan. Its annual exports of goods and services relative to gdp are near record levels. They have grown by 73% over the past decade, and as a result India’s share of global exports has gone from 1.9% in 2012 to 2.4% in 2022. Transport infrastructure has improved dramatically under Mr Modi and his recent predecessors. Investment in it has more than tripled as a share of gdp compared with the mid-2010s. #economy #infrastructure #growth #share #india #investment #network #like #leaders #projects https://lnkd.in/gfQaYmmV