India’s population census postponed again. What does the delay mean?

In 2019, the central government rolled out its Census 2021 plans and allocated Rs 8,754.23 crore for it and 3.3 million enumerators were to be mobilised for data collection. It was to be carried out in two phases -- the first from April to September 2020 and the second in February 2021.

But the operation was postponed due to the sudden outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. And it’s most likely that there would be no census this year too, with hints being dropped that Census 2021 – the first digital one -- will be done only after the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.

That’s a long time indeed and such a long gap is unprecedented. The first census was started in 1872. Since then, for 152 years, it has been conducted every 10 years. There were some disruptions in 1941 (World War II), 1961 (war with China) and 1971 (Bangladesh Liberation War). However, these didn’t force the decennial exercise to be stalled.

WHAT’S A CENSUS? HOW IS IT DONE?

Call it a treasure trove of info or a vast mine of information, the census encapsulates everything from literacy levels, education, housing, household amenities, migration, urbanisation, fertility and mortality, language, religion, disability, and other socio-cultural and demographic data -- age, gender and marital status. It is the largest repository of the nation’s people. It is also a source of primary data at the village, town, and ward levels.

During the census process, workers visit every house and fill up forms, which are transported to data processing centres for digitisation and analysis. However, now the workers will go door-to-door with tablets or smartphones and will enter information into a portal directly.

In the past, it used to take 12 months to complete pre-census activities and census enumeration. The onus of census exercise falls on the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner (ORGI), under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs.

First, the houselisting is done, and then the actual census takes place, to ensure there's no double-counting. Under houselisting, details of all buildings, permanent or temporary, are noted with their type, amenities, and assets. After making a list of all households that are surveyed, population enumeration is carried out. In population enumeration, more detailed information on each individual residing in the country, Indian national or otherwise is to be noted.

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WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?

The Census Act of 1948 was passed just after Independence and a separate office of Registrar General of India (RGI) was established under the home ministry. This was for a reason.

It has been over 11 years since the last census was done in 2011. Government agencies have been chalking out all planning based on the data from the 2011 census. The problem is that resource allocation under a government scheme or programme is based on census, but if the figures are not updated, there are bound to be many who would be deprived of the benefit.

Therefore, the delay in the census impacts actual beneficiaries. Sample this: Around 100 million people are likely being left out of the government's Public Distribution System (PDS) as the population figures used to calculate beneficiaries are based on the 2011 census. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. An old census data loses its reliability and any sample selection for surveys on housing, labour or consumption drawn from it gives a misleading conclusion.

And the census is important in not just the planning and formulation of policies for central and state governments, but also for global agencies, scholars, businesses and others.

NO CASTE-WISE ENUMERATION

When the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was at the Centre, the BJP refused to conduct a caste census. In 2018, the Narendra Modi government had said it would carry out an OBC (Other Backward Classes) census ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But later, it told the apex court that caste enumeration is not feasible. “A caste-wise enumeration in the Census has been given up as a matter of policy from 1951 onwards and thus castes other than SCs and STs have not been enumerated in any of the Census since 1951 till today,” the government affidavit said.

The government has said that it is difficult and cumbersome and it could endanger the Census exercise itself.

Many states, including Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, have been demanding and even passed resolutions in their Assembly that the Census should include caste. Bihar recently started a caste census and more states will apparently follow suit.

COVID, NO DAMPENER

The US carried out its decadal population census while the Covid outbreak was at its peak in 2020. It was their first digital census. The UK also conducted population enumeration exercises during the Covid outbreak. In 2020, China also carried out a census and its findings are out.

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In 2020, at least 18 countries postponed their census to 2021 while four countries postponed it to 2022 or beyond, according to a March-April 2020 survey by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD).

India chose to defer the census amid the pandemic. But it went ahead with Assembly elections in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Campaigning was also done at full-throttle, attracting thousands of people. After lockdowns, Covid restrictions in public places were eased. But the Census was put on hold.

CHALLENGES GALORE

Hurrying through the census could be damaging and defeat its purpose. So, we need to start houselisting as early as possible. The enumeration can only be done in 2024 if houselisting starts now. (For Census 2011, the government conducted houselisting between April and September 2010, and the population enumeration in February 2011.)

Houselisting poses a challenge for India, because the country does not have a robust address system. Yet, another challenge is the ever-changing boundaries of districts and tehsils within a state, a practice that has to be freezed a year before census exercise is undertaken.

"Besides posing operational problems in conducting the field operations, the utility of the census data will be much reduced if changes in areas of administrative units are made either when the census enumeration processes are on or soon thereafter," a December 2009 Karnataka government census circular said.

In a communication to all states, the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India (RGI) is learnt to have conveyed that the date of freezing of administrative boundaries has been extended till June 30, PTI reported.

The exercise can be fast-tracked through digital census, with a provision for self-enumeration. The amended census rules now allow a person to "fill-up, complete and submit the census schedule" themselves. However, there's a question mark over how far will self-enumeration be successful in terms of data quality and completeness of coverage.

Data collection through a mobile app will reduce the overall time taken to process the census data and to publish the results in time. Experts point out that the government is planning to use GPS to mark the enumeration block boundaries, but these technologies are still evolving in India and are very costly.

High internet penetration, widespread computer literacy and accessibility are also important in the digitally-driven census. (Only 50 crore Indians have access to smartphones and less than 8 in 10 are online).

The accuracy will also depend on the way the questionnaire is made. There has been an increase in the number of questions – from 13 in 1951 to 31 in 2021 – in the census questionnaire. How these questions are targeted holds the key to precise data.

And the census exercise should not merely be data-oriented but rather provide a perspective of the culture and society.

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A parliamentary standing committee on home affairs has recommended the setting up of a separate expert group by the RGI to examine the census pattern.

Without good data, a policy will fall flat. And therefore, delaying the Census could have a far-reaching impact.