Why Modi's Moscow tour is important for Indo-Russia relations
As PM Modi heads to Moscow for his first state visit, there is hope that India and Russia will take big steps to boost their flagging strategic partnership
If there was any nation that India would like to describe as an "all-weather friend", Russia would be the front-runner. The Russians have given us unwavering support on Kashmir. They backed us when we did our nuclear tests. They stood by us during Kargil. They helped us with our nuclear power plants and submarine projects and in the defence sector, they sold us cutting edge firepower. India too has steadfastly backed Russia. We didn't decry Russia's Afghan invasion of 1979, we didn't join the chorus when it annexed Crimea last year, and we tacitly support its current involvement in Syria.
Yet in the recent past there has been an inexplicable drift in relations between the two countries. Partly because India has a growing strategic relationship with the US after the path-breaking civilian nuclear deal. And partly because Russia under a resurgent Vladimir Putin challenged the US and Europe, and in doing so, cosied up to India's arch Asian rival China and even flirted with Pakistan.
So when Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President Putin in Moscow for the annual summit on December 24, one of his missions is to reassure the Russian strongman that despite his Western peregrinations, India remains his steadfast friend. That he has put on the fast-track the Druzhba-Dosti (friendship) vision that he signed with Putin in Delhi last year to strengthen and expand bilateral relations by the next decade.
Both India and Russia have now realised that in their quest for global power status, it is imperative that they restore the climate of intimate friendship. Russia needs India as a market for its goods to bypass Western sanctions imposed after its power push in Ukraine. The forthcoming Transatlantic Trade and Investment partnership driven by the US will also force Russia to eye markets beyond Europe. India is a natural partner. Despite its renewed friendship with China, Russia will soon find itself in competition with it as Beijing regards itself as the new G2 along with the US. India can help provide the multi-polarity that Russia fiercely seeks.
India needs Russia because it can meet its abundant energy requirements at a cost-effective price. Despite expanding its defence purchases from the US, Israel and Europe, India still needs to collaborate with Russia to master future technology including for space. It improves India's bargaining power when it negotiates arms sales with the West. Russia can be a major market for Indian industry such as pharmaceuticals, manufactured goods, dairy products, bovine meat and frozen seafood. Geopolitically, Russia continues to be a balancing force against any designs China and Pakistan may have in our region. As P.S. Raghavan, India's ambassador to Russia, points out: "Our friendship is a win-win. Our national and international ambitions are mutually supportive-there are no contradictions between India and Russia."
When Modi and Putin meet they need to review the progress made on the bilateral trade target of $30 billion they set for 2025. Currently it hovers around $10 billion and to achieve a three-fold increase in trade is a tall ask. While defence cooperation, the main pillar of the relations, has moved from simple buyer-seller to one of joint research, development and production of advance technologies, these projects need to be executed swiftly. Particularly the projects on the fifth generation aircraft and air transport programmes and the new tie-up to manufacture helicopters in India.
The real push has to come in economic relations between the two countries. Indian investment in Russia now totals $7 billion and comes mainly from the oil and gas sector. ONGC-Videsh has a 20 per cent stake in Sakhalin-1 and acquired Imperial Energy Tomsk, which has oil-producing assets. Russia's Gazprom and GAIL signed a 20-year contract to supply LNG. And Rosneft has tied up with Essar for long-term supply of crude oil and feed stocks. Meanwhile, Tata has plans to set up an assembly line for mini lorries and buses. In pharmaceuticals, the Sun Group, Ranbaxy and Lupin are expanding their operations in Russia. There is tremendous potential in diamond, fertilisers and food sectors that needs to be exploited by India Inc.
Russia too needs to step up its investments in India which currently stands around $3 billion. Sistema, the Russian telecom giant, ran into trouble with its joint venture in India, Shyam Sistema Telelinks, when it lost 21 of its 22 licences in India after a Supreme Court ruling in the 2G spectrum case. Russia has expressed its unhappiness over the development. Meanwhile, major opportunities are opening up for Russian companies in India to invest in Modi's 'Make in India' initiative in sectors such as defence equipment, civil aviation and in railways. India on its part has to learn to absorb Russian technology and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. Like the famed Maytroyshka dolls, India and Russia need to add more and more layers to their relationship to produce an impressive and durable partnership.