Indian Defence Review

It was amusing to view the Singh Duo RPN Singh, Minister of State for Home Affairs and RK Singh,  Home Secretary describing the Maoist attack on a train in Bihar as “Frustration” on the part of Maoists due to the “Pressure” mounted on them post the Chhattisgarh attack of 25^th May on the Congress convoy killing 27 (17 Congressmen and 10 policemen) and wounding 36. Equally amusing was the all-party meeting chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the Maoist problem unanimously agreeing to fight the Maoists. Reminds you of the 1994 Parliament Resolution stating whole of undivided J&K is integral part of India, followed by a second Parliament Resolution to the same effect this year under Manmohan Singh amidst much thumping of tables. But despite these two resolutions, when the Chinese intruded 19 kilometres deep, it only turned out to be a “small acme” on Salman Khurshid’s cheek that has kept him guessing to-date why this acme apeared. Less said about the Singh Duo’s political master who washed off his hand by saying, “we have no jurisdiction in the area”.

But coming to this business of “Frustration” and “Pressure on the Maoists”, can the Singh Duo explain what this pressure is, where was it applied, in what manner and more importantly with what results? Yes, additional 1000 CRPF were pumped into Bastar post the 25^th May attack, but what has been achieved? By the looks of it, this Maoist attack on the train in Bihar was perhaps the final exercise for a new batch of women cadre Maoists. If the “pressure” assessment is because they attacked a train, well attack on soft target is the modus operandi of terrorists and insurgents globally – whether it was Ajmal Qasab and Co in Mumbai or the bombings during the Boston Marathon.

But what the Singh Duo did not talk about is that the Maoists took away the weapons of all the Railway Protection Force (RPF) personnel killed and abducted. Axiomatically these RPF personnel would not have fired a shot as was the case of 10 policemen killed on 25^th May whose weapons were taken away by the Maoists. Media reports of the Maoists having fired some 10,000 rounds of ammunition on 25^th May are also laughable considering insurgent / terrorist organizations are trained for rigorous ammunition control besides they hardly needed to expend 10,000 rounds to kill 27 and wound 36 with firing positions next to the road.

The solace being drawn by the authorities is that the Maoists are: dwindling in numbers; are on the run and on that count do not have permanent headquarters; are short of arms and ammunition; tribals are only a small part of Maoists; Maoists do not have ‘popular’ support; they would not attack high profile targets for fear of reprisals; they don’t have much external support and: mis-governance and poverty are not confined to Maoists infected areas only.

To this, some analysts add Maoists have no “liberated Zones”, going by semantics of the classical definition – much to the glee of the hierarchy. But if all these beliefs of the hierarchy have substance then Manhohan Singh is needlessly creating fear by describing the Maoist insurgency as “the single biggest internal security challenge ever faced by our country”. We might as well repeat what Chidambaram said as Home Minister in 2010, that the Maoist problem will be resolved in next 2-3 years. Don’t mind if three years have elapsed already since 2010 and nothing will be resolved in the next three years either. So we can give the same statement in 2016 and for subsequent years. But this apart, here is why the Maoist insurgency will continue to flourish:

•  Quoting the Constitution that Law and Order is a State subject, the Centre has washed off its hands beyond dishing out more and more Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) battalions and intelligence tidbits by the Intelligence bureau.

•  Concurrently, the Centre has deliberately failed to implement Schedules 5 and 6 of the Constitution with respect to the Forest Act and Land Ceiling respectively.

•  Schedule 5 of the Constitution requires Tribal participation in management of forests and forest produce including mining activities but this is ignored because of the politician-mafia nexus involving lakhs of crores in mining (both legal and illegal). Though the Government has a Ministry of Tribal Affairs, it is obviously ineffective or part of the politician-mafia nexus.

•  Schedule 6 requires implementation of the Land Ceiling, which is grossly lacking. For example, in a State like Andhra Pradesh, there are scores and scores of landlords who own anything from 2000 to 8000 acres or more of land. The Governor, who represents the President of India (Constitutional Head India), is supposed to ensure implementation of the Constitution. However, in Andhra Pradesh, the Governor has abdicated this responsibility and has left it to the Chief Minister who does not move one finger because of vote-bank politics. Ironically, Andhra Pradesh is a Congress Governed State.
• Aside from ideology (involving small cross section) the Maoists dissent is about land, forests and gross and lack of governance but greed of money and vote-bank politics of the hierarchy deters taking remedial steps.
•  The States have little capacity to fight the Maoists – no police reforms have been undertaken pan India and CRPF provisioned not capable enough either.
•  The CRPF is just not organized to fight the Maoists, as proved by all previous encounters. Raising of more and more police battalions in nothing more than empire building. The units earmarked for counter insurgency operations need to be reorganized akin to Rashtriya Rifles or Assam Rifles; organization, manning, equipping, training and building of ethos.
•  The stated policy by Ministry of Home affairs of “Clear – Hold – Build” is ambiguous to say the least and there is no shortcut to simultaneously tackle the issue at the socio-politico- economic and military levels not discounting the secessionist angle but not losing focus on the population as the ‘centre of gravity’.

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Left to the States, there is lack of a holistic appreciation for the Maoists problem as a whole despite contiguity of Maoist infested areas, unhindered Maoists movement from one state to another and capacity of insurgents to muster large numbers from various states for a major strike at a place of their choosing.

•  If armed Maoists cadres are estimated around 20,000. We need to remember that just 5000 Naga insurgents had kept insurgency alive for decades.
•  We should not be carried away by assessment of “dwindling” numbers of Maoists cadres. The number of the Maoists cadres would have actually expanded with inclusion of women and children. In 2011, the Asian Centre for Human Rights (ACHR) had reported at least 3000 child soldiers in India – perhaps a conservative estimate considering Maoists follow a policy of forcibly recruiting at least one boy from each tribal family of around 16 years of age. The fact that Maoists in the 25^th May were of 18-25 years of age indicates that the young cadre has expanded.
•  It will be naïve to view the 20,000 Maoists and more than double the number of militia as a separate entity discounting their links with other insurgent / terrorist outfits that facilitates strikes in other States. While tactical pauses reduced number of incidents, Maoists influence is actually expanding to Tamil Nadu, Uttrakhand, West Bengal, Assam and even Tripura. They have firm links with the PFI (Popular Front of India) headquartered in Kerala and the Maoists of Nepal. There are confirmed reports of PLA of Manipur training jointly with the Maoists.
•  The quantity and quality of arms and equipment with Maoists can always be conjectured to suit our comfort levels since there is little ground intelligence. The Purulia drop was discovered by default ‘after’ the drop had taken place. Studies on the web tell you that of the 73 million illegal weapons in the world today, 40 million are in India. In September 2012, recoveries from Silodar Forest (on border of Bihar and Jharkhand) included a US-made Colt and Hart-manufactured M-I6 rifle (a prohibited bore by US Army), an Italian pistol and UK-made bulletproof jacket. Simultaneously, an AK-56 was recovered from Patna. Earlier, sophisticated Chinese assault rifles and communications equipment were discovered in Odisha buried underground wrapped in weatherproof bags in same fashion they used to be recovered in J&K few years back. Obviously these are being stored for future use. Explosives and detonators are just no problem with all the legal and illegal mining in the area.
•  Government has been downplaying China-Pakistan collusive support in fanning the Maoists insurgency; focused on upgrading their armament and tactics plus efforts to coordinate their operations in conjunction other insurgent groups, particularly in the northeast. It is for this reason that representatives of the LeT have been attending Maoists meetings periodically. Not only are sophisticated arms and communication equipment being pumped in by China and Pakistan, China has also provided arms manufacturing capabilities to the Maoists. The recovery of 1.5 kg uranium IED in Assam earlier this year is ominous. There is every possibility of China pumping in shoulder fired air defence missiles to the Maoists under garb of deniability, similar to having supplied them to Shia insurgents in Iraq, Taliban and the USWA (United State Wa Army) in Myanmar. China has even supplied helicopters fitted with air to air missiles to USWA in February-March this year despite close political, economic and military relations with Myanmar. The cold disdain with which China treats India is indication enough that China will have no compunction to upgrade Maoist insurgency in India’s heartland. There are already newspaper reports suggesting Paresh Barua is lurking on the border to get in touch with the Chinese. It maybe recalled that post rout of the ULFA from Bhutan, China gave them sanctuary on Chinese soil.
•  Finance is hardly a problem. Financial back up of the Maoist terror industry was estimated at Rupees 1,500 crores in 2010 growing annually by 15 percent through drugs, ransom, looting, extortion, robbery and poppy. Income from poppy cultivation is estimated at Rupees 1 crore per acre – cue taken from Al Qaeda / Taliban poppy bonanza in Afghanistan.

•  We may play around with semantics of “liberated zones”, but there are hundreds of square kilometers of territory that is no go for security forces and with proper Maoist manned barriers only those get through who are allowed to enter by the Maoists hierarchy. It is the Maoists who collect taxes, oversee administration and hold ‘Jan Adalats’ attended by thousands. There is plenty of support though you may argue it is not popular. In any insurgency, population is fed up with violence. Same was the case in Tamil populated areas of Sri Lanka but what does the population do when there is no effort to establish the rule of law. Media personnel who get through have clicked training events and proper camps, akin to what ULFA had in Bhutan. There is no reason Maoists will have proper Headquarters with underground tunnels in the thick of Dandakaranya Forest akin to Prabahkaran’s lair in Alampil Forest of Sri Lanka.
•  Intelligence in any insurgency has to come primarily from ground level but in this case the hundreds of square kilometers insurgent areas are no go for others. No apparent effort has been made to tap the hundreds of young boys and girls from these interior areas working in the NCR region. Similarly, there is apparently no system of feedback for security personnel from these areas returning from leave. It is on record that Nepalese Maoists were forcing our Gorkha soldiers while on leave to impart arms training to their cadres and teach tactics of raids and ambush to insurgent cadres under threat of life to the soldier’s family residing in Nepal. There is no reason why Indian Maoists would not follow suit.
•  The logic that mis-governance and poverty is in other areas as well does not cut any ice. Fudging below poverty line figures through unsustainably benchmarks and only 17 percent out thousands of crores of poverty alleviation schemes reaching ground level can hardly help.
•  The Ministry of Home Affairs list of 35 terrorist organizations does not include organizations like the PFI firmly linked with Al Qaeda and LeT (as confirmed by both R&AW and IB), picked up weapons against the India State four yeatr back and whose cadres were caught in Kupwara (north J&K) two years back trying to cross over to POK. Another example is the National Army of Meghalaya that the security forces have been battling for past few years now. These organizations and many others may well join up with the Maoists eventually but our hierarchy looks the other way because of vote bank politics.
•  Maoists ideology also appears to be finding support in the youth in educational institutions like the JNU and DU, intellectual segments and have even participated in seminars and discussions in the national capital. The reason is not communist ideology but resentment against an administration that is mired in corruption, refuses accountability and cannot think beyond money making and votes. Look at the ping-pong about the responsibility of law and order in Delhi, the horrific rape of Nirbhaya last December, quelling of the agitated young and the promises of quick justice – all forgotten.
•  Maoists appear to have considerable influence on sections of the media both at the regional and national level. Awareness and communications of the Maoists are excellent. Within minutes of an incident they inform media channels. Even the demise of VC Shukla was passed on to certain media channels within 15 minutes of his passing away. It would not be surprising that the second attack on the CRPF patrol on 13^th June was a message after the Singh Duo televised comments that Maoists are a frustrated lot under pressure.
•  Any proposals like the NCTC-SCTC will not get through unless a total threat appreciation (if done at all) is shared along with the overall plan of action and road map for its implementation. Patchwork solutions will remain unworkable.

The fact is that in the current dispensation, the Indian State has no will to deal with the Maoists and lives have no value. But it will be foolish to pass off the Maoists attacks in Bihar of today (13^th June) as acts of ‘frustrated’ Maoists under ‘pressure’ or waive them off as the hundred gun salute for Nitish’s Third Front. Maoists insurgency has the potential to be turned into the actual ‘Third Front’ threat to India assisted by our adversaries in times of conflict. Let us not fool ourselves that the Maoist insurgency is waning. No matter how much we want to downplay it, Maoists have actually affected 180 districts in 16 States in varied levels of intensity (35 percent of population in 40 percent of area) and are establishing urban bases. Core of the Maoists are trained by the LTTE under aegis ISI and they have integrated this with Mao’s ideology of mass guerilla attack. There is likely to be much more violence and mayhem. We should not take them lightly.