Indian Defence Review

In a desert region deep in the northern heart of China, in the town of Huangyangatan, is a 1:500 scale model reflecting 157,000 sqaure kilometres of Aksai Chin and Eastern Ladakh. This model, made with much secrecy, entirely for military purposes, is yet another indication of China’s long-term ambition to push India’s border west of the River Indus. The June 2020 aggression at Despang and Galwan, part of Chinese objectives to control the Indus and its main tributaries- the Nubra, Shyok, Galwan, and Changchemo, key to solving China’s acute water shortages- for food production, electricity generation and vital to the future manufacture of Semiconductors/Microchips (MC’s). China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI), the development of Karachi and Gwadar as naval base and logistics centres, the cheap supply of both military and nuclear hardware and technology, has reduced a vengeful Pakistan, to the status of a debt- ridden satellite. It is now being integrated into the Chinese military system, ready to do its bidding, becoming key to the ‘string of pearls’ strategy to encircle India. China’s expansionist moves have kept India’s focus away from building a strong navy to restrict its power, and President Xi’s stated objective of making his country the supreme power in the world by 2035!

China subverts our democracy, encouraging seditious movements, using the Confucius Institutes and clandestinely supporting inimical forces, to undermine our polity. Even the mighty Congress fell into the trap of perceived friendship with the CPC, agreeing ‘…to consult …on important bilateral, regional and international developments.’  China’s actions are inimical to our economic interests, our soverignty and our pride.

The Response- ‘Be bold and mighty forces will come to your aid’ (Anonymous)

PM Modi’s personal diplomacy, and increased trade failed to produce a settled border. Eighteen rounds of Corps Commander talks, going on for three years, during unprecedented levels of military build-up on the LAC, are bound to fail in a scenario of calculated Chinese duplicity. Could Russia help?  Events since 2014 and recently have ensured that Russia, now a close ally of China with a ‘no limits’ partnership, has effectively been neutralised as a staunch and dependable ally. President Xi, firmly in control, possesses a large military with perceived elevated technological capabilities, structured for aggressive war. Not long ago, PLA commanders were required to sharpen their ability ‘to win a regional war’. Recently Xi spoke of war readiness, exhorting his generals to ‘dare to fight’. 

Comparisons for War- ‘A great people …can never be intimidated’ (Napoleon)

Whilst China’s resources and capabilities are impressive, ‘victory’ in a territorial war, an essentially land-centric engagement likely to be a short conventional war (or possibly a protracted conflict!), requires a stalemate following a determined and robust defence. Our top brass is quietly confident in a war even on two fronts. Our army, with a marked superiority in mountain warfare, supplemented by a ‘heights’ advantage, matches our adversaries along the LAC/LOC with an equivalent fire power and lethality in terms of tanks, artillery, missiles and boots on the ground, all tilting in our favour. Induction of the latest technology by infusion of swarm drones and loiter munitions; night fighting, space assets providing agile military intelligence surveillance, target-acquisition and reconnaissance equipment, electronic warfare systems and development of critical combat capabilities using multi-skilled personnel, has taken place. Joint exercises with the US, Russia and France have helped in force projection and technology transfers.  

Geography gives air advantage. Chinese air bases, at higher elevations, limit fuel and armament carrying capacity. India has many more airfields, all closer to the border with the ability to field more missions at any given time. Otherwise too, the IAF, which holds, among others, Spice-2000 and Crystal maze glide bombs and cruise missiles in its arsenal, has the strategic edge. The battle tested Rafale is superior to China’s J20 A2’s, despite the latter being touted as a fifth generation aircraft : ‘…it is probably at best a 3.5 generation aircraft ….. (with) a third generation engine’(Air Marshal R. Nambiar). The SU30’s and upgraded MIG 29’s, the refitted Mirage 2000’s and new LCA’s give air superiority.

India’s Integrated Rocket Force creates a conventional deterrence, matching the PLARF at the tactical and operational levels. Our basket of missiles covers the short, medium and the long range with ‘Surya’ having a range of 16,000 kms., covering the entire earth! The versatile Brahmos II cruise missile with an estimated range of 600 km, capable of pin point accuracy (the hypersonic version with Mach 7-8 speed), adds to deterrence value. The quasi- ballistic surface-to-surface Pralay and Prahaar tactical missiles (150-500 km range) ensure that the Indian Army (IA) retains the flexibility to target hard targets for maximum advantage given the proximate deployment of the PLA in both Eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. The Agni V (5000 km range) brings all China within strike range. The Triad that India now possesses is a credible strategic deterrence in place.

China’s vulnerability in the Malacca straits makes a geographically well placed India with the capability to choke it off, a useful ally for the US to link up from their base at Diego Garcia. The Indian Navy (IN), now transformed into a blue water force, its strength augmented by precision guided Hellfire missiles(US), Mark 54 anti-submarine torpedoes for its US made MH-60 Romeo multirole helicopters and the Boeing P-8 Posedion Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance aircraft  and much else, is now a tangible threat. The nuclear powered Arihant Class ballistic missile submarines will add further punch. Cooperation with QUAD gives the IN greater potency and menace. Despite the hype, the Chinese navy is yet to project power effectively in the Indian Ocean.

In a worst-case ‘missile rain’ scenario, India has adequate Ballistic Missile Defence, containing early warning and long-range tracking radars in its two-tiered shield: the Prithvi Air Defence system for high altitude and the Advanced Air Defence System for lower altitude interception. This integrated with the operationalisation of a Portable medium range Air Defence System gives India an impregnable air defence. These are buttressed by the S400’s from Russia, regarded as the best of their kind. Whilst this equipment (along with the Shitl-I), is also possessed by China, India has the latest version with greater range, and an undeniable edge. The Barak-1, Israeli surface-to-air anti-aircraft missile system, part of our naval air defence, effectively intercepts very low flying missiles on India’s vast sea front.

Indegenous and recently procured and tested drones and other unmanned vehicles on land, sea and air, are force multipliers. The PALM-400 (precision attack loitering system; JV Israel), is a game-changer for our defence capabilities. The DRDO’s new anti-drone system can detect and deactivate drones within a radius of  4 km with counter attack capability including detection, Soft Kill (for jamming the communication links of Drones) and Hard Kill (Laser based hard kill to destroy the Drone) of enemy UAV’s.  Further systems able to protect from and undertake cyber attacks to degrade the enemy’s critical IT infrastructure, have been inducted.

‘High Tech is Foreign Policy’ (US Defense Secretary Harold Brown)

In the longer run, it is ‘innovation power’ (Eric Schmidt), the ability to invent, adopt and adapt new technologies and do so faster and better, which, in the final analysis, will determine our power, influence, war making ability and deterrence. We are competing against a China who decades ago, made MC’s a national priority. Whilst, there is much ‘spin’ alluding to an equality in tech and war making ability to awe adversaries, there are gaps which, given heavy funding to reinvigorate its MC industry, will keep the US ahead in the future. China suffers from an acute supply chain vulnerability as production of high end MC’s is monopolised by the US and its defence partners and allies, its geopolitical rivals. Ironically, the more progress China makes to become an AI superpower, the more dependant it becomes on foreign MC’s, underlying its desperation to increase high-end MC production.  This weakness was evident in President Trump’s decisive policy initiative (May 2020) which together with Biden’s export curbs (October 2022) made a crippling impact on accessing critical technologies required for everything from supercomputing to guided weapons.

The way forward – ‘To Secure peace, prepare for war’ (Clausewitz)

Whilst India has taken first steps- the launch of ‘Semicon India’ and the planned production of MC’s, it will be decades before we achieve parity with China – on our own steam. Tech superiority can only come about, therefore, from a close and mutually beneficial relationship with the US and its allies- to import the necessary and vital technologies and hardware together with laying the foundations for a strong and robust economy. Steps have been taken to become a credible investment alternative to China, ‘growing’ from minus 24% in the first year of the pandemic to become the fastest growing (large sized) economy. GDP is set to double by the end of the decade as is per capita income. Simultaneously, the PM has spectacularly fashioned an energetic, pragmatic and focussed foreign policy, making the US an ally, then defence partner and recently ‘indispensable partner’(US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen). With BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement -2022), India aligns with the US in  ‘integrated deterrence’ of military power, a decisive step in strategic posture. The results are evident. Timely US satellite imagery sharing (Dec 2022) enabled the IA to humiliatingly outflank and outnumber a major PLA incursion at the LAC in Tawang.  The PM’s successful use of India’s soft power, his strategic projection of India’s capability, the bold actions/decisions taken in the raid on Uri, Kashmir (article 370), at Doklam, the raid on Balakot and the spirited defence at Galwan and his increased stature internationally, have created a respect, trust and confidence in the US to support India as an effective counterweight to China. This is reflected in the joint initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies- (iCET) with the US offering future support for ‘India’s rise as a global superpower.’ The PM’s recent US visit saw the removal of hurdles in high tech trade (agreements in cutting edge technologies in AI and MC’s including manufacture in India), high performance computing with a new facility to manufacture MC’s, and in space and defence.

In a possible scenario of conflict with both neighbours, the US, in an adversarial relationship with both Russia and China, may be unwilling to provide unconditional and effective direct help. The EU less so. The key to victory then is further ‘Fifth/sixth generation’ weapons and military technology transfer from the U.S. – Avionics for aircraft, Air Defence Mechanisms, systems for naval force projection, Electromagnetic systems, cyber and electronic warfare capability systems etc., together with the procurement of more Advanced Missile systems, AWACS,  UAV’s, FRA aircraft, Aircraft Carriers, more satellites to increase ISR capabilities etc.- placing India as a partner- on par with UK, Israel and Australia, following an even closer relationship with the US (resulting too in  closer proximity to its allies such as Japan and Australia). Such an affiliation, providing deterrence capability, is vital and immediate and has to be the main thrust of India’s foreign policy and diplomacy. This knowledge- that any enemy action would be painful to them, should encourage a more determined and belligerent military doctrine towards China.

Foreign Minister Jaishankar’s  pragmatic stance during the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a useful foundation for a more equal relationship based upon respect for India’s needs. In the future, an alliance with the US must work without India in any way becoming subservient and dissipating its energies in non-focus areas. This will be yet another test of our political will and diplomacy. As would bringing our influential diaspora in the US and elsewhere in line with India’s foreign policy interests and objectives.

The will to win- ‘In the long run the sword is always beaten by the mind’ (Napoleon)

These critical initiatives and actions become meaningless unless we have the heart and mind to confront the enemy and the WILL to win. This idea is reflected in Napoleon’s comment that there are ‘two powers in the world-the sword and the mind. In the long run the sword is always beaten by the mind.’ Whilst the resolve of the armed forces is evident and the spirit of the Indian soldier intact, a ‘softness’ prevails in the establishment, a mentality conditioned by a history of subjugation and military setback (1962), causing disproportionate awe resulting in a belief that defeat or catastrophe is inevitable.

In the past, the PLA found government’s buckling down after initial protests: between 1993 and 2006, appeasing governments acquiesced to the loss/salami slicing of 645 sq. km. of Indian territory. Declaring the LAC is not ‘permanent’ plays into China’s narrative as also any suggestion that a negotiation on Kashmir requires China’s presence. Public pronouncements about avoiding war with a stronger adversary are not helpful. It is time to realize that the raison d’étre of our China policy cannot simply be one of accommodation- governed by our concerns not to give offence which makes for a bolder and contemptuous adversary, prone to greater belligerence.

Victory is not dependant on the greater strength of the economy or a higher per capita income or indeed the size of the armed forces-1962, is an apt example when China, at a lower level of economic development, had simply planned and prepared better. It is as much dependent on how and where force is concentrated, superior high-tech weapons and systems and the morale and quality of forces. Given this existential problem from a relentless foe, leadership of an altogether different dimension is vital- which creates and conveys an appreciation of the country’s destiny and rallies our countrymen.

Happily, there is a fine example of awe-inspiring grit and resoluteness from our own history which may profitably be emulated. Inspired by Guru Gobind Singh, the charismatic Jassa Singh Ahluwalia (1718-1783) rallied the people of Punjab when a fatalistic pessimism, not unlike present times, became the order of the day. Fighting against insurmountable odds, he combined a self-belief with a sound military organization, a bold and unconventional strategy, a quick-witted opportunism, a refusal to compromise and fight on, to defeat Abdali, the greatest conquerer of his time. In doing so he won freedom and soverignty for Punjab after centuries of subjugation and in the process, seized Lahore, and Delhi subsequently.

We all know that the trauma of military defeat can only be overcome by victory over the same opponent. China, correctly admired for its strength, is wrongly feared for its invincibility. The PM, in a positive change of mindset, echoed this sentiment in his address to the troops in Ladakh: ‘The weak cannot initiate peace’. Showing a capacity for bold steps and strong action, he initiated a programme for future preparedness – warships being constructed at a furious pace for example – and recently, after his July visits to the US and France, to import high end products e.g. Rafales/Scorpene’s for the IN, and technology transfer and joint manufacture of aero engines from/with GE and Safran, the latter made possible by conditions created with his ‘Make in India’ manufacturing thrust. Whilst in the past too, there have been instances of resolute and assertive behaviour (Gen Sagat Singh stands out in his extraordinary engagements with both the China -1967, and Pakistan -1971 for example), what is required now is an altogether changed mindset. We require to be as open minded about attacking China as we are of Pakistan, deep into Chinese territory if necessary, with destruction of enemy retaliatory capabilities. Recently the Air Chief’s comments about the mantra for wars in the future: ‘To see first and see clearly, to reach first and reach the farthest and to strike first and strike with precision..’ gives a hint of this thinking.  Perhaps this attitude could filter down into diplomacy, for example, in a closer relationship with Taiwan, placing Indian army officers and men in Mongolia for ‘training’ purposes, and a well thought out strategy to help Uighurs, channelling the genuine concerns of many in India and elsewhere, to put pressure on China?!

‘Be of one mind…that you may conquer your enemies’ (Genghis Khan)

It is now time for the PM to prepare the country for the conflict that will inevitably follow. It is time to avenge 1962 and the hundreds of assaults and humiliations over the years.  It is also time to realise that the strength of policy rests on the unquestioning support of the larger public and so, it is essential for the opposition to stop undermining the authority and influence of the PM both at home and abroad, in this time of crisis. Even if such a conflict results in stalemate, it will overcome our historical trauma and lead India on the way to an invincible confidence reflected in chardi kala, an exuberant optimism and high spiritedness and a strong and positive belief in ourselves. It was Deng Xiaoping who once said ‘… Should China play the tyrant in the world and subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation…the world should expose it, oppose it and defeat it.’ The time has come.