MINURSO (the U.N. mission for the Western Sahara) observers take note of a Moroccan drone strike on ... [+]
The Moroccan army has come under attack in the Western Sahara, a disputed territory it occupies since 1975. They are involved in skirmishes against the armed wing of the Polisario Front, the land’s national liberation organization.
Hostilities intensified by the end of 2023, after the visit of U.S. envoy Joshua Harris to the region. The Sahrawis believe that they are being left out of any solution to the conflict, and that the U.S. and Europe view Morocco’s occupation as already consummated.
The Polisario Front would be attempting to bring attention to their plight by harassing Moroccan military units, short of launching an all-out war. This would also put at risk economic activity in the occupied territory, which is of relevance to Europe.
Small, mobile Sahrawi units have mostly been launching rockets across the frontline. Some attacks have concentrated on Moroccan military positions in Mahbes and Smara, towns in the so-called “useful triangle” in the North of the Western Sahara. Images presented by the Polisario Front include Soviet-era self-propelled artillery.
The name “useful triangle”, given in Morocco, comes since the region is the most populated and concentrates the productive industries. The territory is wealthy in phosphates, iron, and fishing. Morocco is also developing a wind and solar power industry in the area.
The Moroccan military has also responded by attacking Sahrawis across the desert using drones. The Polisario Front claims that drones have killed four Mauritanian civilians and injured two more this year. They would be workers on their way to a mine.
“In this part of the Sahara Desert, there aren’t really borders, it’s open land,” says Gaici Nah, from the Sahrawi Mine Action Coordination Office, of the area between the Western Sahara, Mauritania, and Algeria.
“It is true that Sahrawi military units move in this area, but there are also civilians travelling or transporting goods. Moroccan drones have targeted Mauritanians, Algerians, and other nationalities, as we are documenting extensively from our office. The latest took place on January 5th.”
What does an escalation mean?
Wind turbines are pictured at the Tarfaya wind farm in the southwestern Moroccan city. Multiple ... [+]
An escalation in the Western Sahara could have broad economic implications, especially if the “useful triangle” is targeted. Already, sabotage by the national liberation movement has disrupted phosphate and iron mining.
Furthermore, Morocco is working to build large renewables plants, mostly for wind and solar, to export the energy into Europe. Its electrical grid is connected to Spain under the Strait of Gibraltar, and thus to much of the European Union.
Renewables generation is also intended to personally benefit Morocco’s ruler, King Mohammed VI since the electricity firm, Nareva, is owned by him and the royal family through the holding company Al Mada.
Beyond electricity production itself, war—or the risk of conflict—could also jeopardize the positions of foreign firms involved in the occupied territories. European firms Siemens and Enels have been involved in the installation and maintenance of windmills for Nareva.
Various activist organizations have denounced the exploitation of natural resources in the occupied territory, such as Western Sahara is Not for Sale and the Western Sahara Resource Watch. EU courts ruled that goods from the disputed land cannot be treated as Moroccan.
In 2018, Maersk dropped shipping phosphates from the occupied territory. In 2020, the Swedish mining equipment company Epiroc announced that it would no longer supply the Bou Craa phosphate mine, which is in the Western Sahara but operated by Morocco. Others could follow suit over time.
Why are hostilities restarting?
Satellite view of "the Berm", the line of fortifications built by Morocco to fend off attacks from ... [+]
The Western Sahara is a “territory in the process of decolonization” according to the U.N. It was a Spanish colony until 1975, but instead of becoming independent it was occupied by Morocco—and for a brief period between 1975 and 1979, the southern third was controlled by Mauritania.
Rabat has since claimed the Western Sahara as its own, although only the U.S. and Israel recognize its sovereignty over the territory since 2020. That year, the three struck a deal as part of the Trump administration’s “Abraham Accords”.
The Polisario Front-led state, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (S.A.D.R.), had been recognized by 84 governments—though the number has fallen to 34—and the African Union as the legitimate rulers of the territory. However, they only control a fraction of it, and about half of all Sahrawi people live in refugee camps in Algeria. The government-in-exile is headquartered there, near the Algerian town of Tindouf.
As 2024 starts, Sahrawi military units have launched attacks onto and over the Moroccan “Berm”, a 1,700-mile (2,700km) long defensive construction surrounding the occupied part of the territory.
These clashes would be the first since November 2020. Before that, since 1991, both Morocco and the Polisario Front had committed to a ceasefire until a mutually satisfactory political solution was found.
Rabat has rejected any proposal that would offer self-determination: three referendums have not been able to take place due to their veto, such as the “Baker Plan”, named after James Baker, who became the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Western Sahara.
This picture taken on December 12, 2020 shows (L to R) US and Moroccan flags next to a US State ... [+]
“Morocco has spent three decades preventing the referendum from taking place,” said John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor under President Donald Trump. He also worked for Baker at the State Department and the U.N. to find a resolution for the Western Sahara conflict.
Morocco even rejected referendum plans where its citizens settling the area would be allowed to vote: it would put land claims into question, or allow for democratic surprises under an autocratic monarchy.
Ending 2020, Morocco was emboldened by the Trump administration to cross the ceasefire line, occupying an additional area to link up with Mauritania’s coast. This resulted in skirmishes along the Berm, although it did not escalate further.
The key danger is that the new generation of Sahrawis sees no hope after more than 30 years of humiliating peace. They can either live as second-class citizens under occupation, or in poverty-stricken refugee camps. Many have chosen to emigrate, while others believe that resuming hostilities is their only option.
This article includes a correction: While in the past up to 84 countries recognized the SADR, as of January 2024 only 34 do. Many states have frozen or withdrwan recognition over the years.
