Naveen Patnaik's charisma still strong, may get another term as Odisha CM — A SWOT analysis

The politics of Odisha has been governed by Chief Minister and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) chief Naveen Patnaik for over two decades as he continues to maintain a stronghold in the state decimating his Opposition.


The Bharatiya Janata Party has expanded its influence in the state and the Congress stands at third position. Patnaik, at 77, has been ruling the state since 2000, and winning this term would make him the longest-serving chief minister, surpassing Sikkim's Pawan Chamling.

Odisha will vote for both Lok Sabha and state Assembly polls in four phases on May 13, 20, 25 and June 1. The state has 21 Parliamentary constituencies and 147 Assembly seats.

Here is the SWOT analysis of parties in Odisha:

BJD

Strengths:

• CM Naveen Patnaik's charisma remains intact even after ruling the state for 24 years. His clean image and popularity for his simplicity are the biggest of the party.


• Of the 4.5 crore population of the state, the BJD has a membership of over 1 crore and a dedicated cadre.


• The party has focussed on women voters and the CM's women empowerment activities have created a solid vote bank for the party.

Weaknesses

• There is no tall leader except Patnaik in the party to attract voters.


• The party has been battling anti-incumbency for 24 years.


• The party has over 100 MLAs but there is no second in command who can manage the party's affairs in the absence of Patnaik.


• BJD's soft inclination towards the NDA government at the Centre. The party has helped the Centre in passing important bills in the Parliament.

Opportunities

• Being Odisha's biggest political party, it is an opportunity for the party to rule the state by portraying its achievements.

Threats

• Many leaders have left the BJD and joined the BJP which may hamper the regional party's poll prospects.


• There are dissidents or rebel leaders in all the 147 Assembly and 21 Lok Sabha seats. As many as 10,000 aspirants have applied for party tickets for both state and general elections.


• Reports of discrimination in implementing welfare schemes may create problems for BJD.

BJP

After BJP's ties with BJD ended in 2009, the former has remained a politically non-performer in the state. It is gradually creating its base with the rise in the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It is now the main opposition party in the state.

Strengths

• PM Modi is the BJP's biggest strength in the state. Several opinion polls have concluded that Modi is the most popular national leader in Odisha.


• The consecration ceremony of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya has strengthened BJP's base in the state.

Weaknesses

• BJP does not have a leader in the state who can match the image and stature of CM Patnaik. Its leaders are mostly limited to certain constituencies.


• The party lacks connection with the RSS cadre and ABVP members across the state.


• The infighting among senior leaders is another weakness of the party.

Opportunities

• The party can cash in on the anti-incumbency factor that has started hitting the ruling BJD.


• The Congress is not a major force in the state allowing the saffron party to make the most.

Threats

• BJP leaders are mostly urban-centric and party connections with the grassroots are less. There is no programme for the village-level leaders which keeps them politically idle.


• There is infighting in the party with BJD turncoats getting a ticket for Assembly polls.

Congress

The party has not been in power in Odisha for over 24 years. Since 2019, it has lost the second spot in the state to the BJP.

Strengths

• The Congress has not made any electoral progress in Odisha but its people are still there in all the 314 blocks of the state. People still recognise Congress as the oldest party.


• The party's strength lies in the unpopularity of rival parties.

Weaknesses

• The party lacks unity among leaders and the prevailing crab culture in the party. The leaders continue to fight against each other for a post.


• The state unit does not have much backing from the central leadership.

Opportunities

• The party is the natural opposition choice for people and it is an opportunity for the Congress to make a dent in the vote share of BJP and BJD.


• The party is at the lowest in Odisha and any gain will be significant for the Congress.

Threat

• The party faces a strong resource scarcity in the state. Even though 3,000 people applied for party tickets for 168 seats, many of them faced funds shortages.


• Both Modi and Patnaik being at the height of popularity, could also work against the Congress's electoral prospects.

2019 election result

In the 2019 general elections, the BJD had emerged as the winner with 12 seats while the saffron party managed to get 8 seats out of a total of 23 in the state, leaving the Congress way behind at 1 seat.

In 2019, the BJD secured victory in 112 assembly seats and formed the government, while the BJP won 23 seats, marking an increase of 13 from its 2014 tally. In terms of vote share, the BJP got 32.5%, while the BJD bagged 44.7%. The grand old party was confined to nine seats with only 16.1% of the vote share.

With inputs from PTI