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2020, South Asian Voices
The Asia Pacific region has become a major focal point in strategic domains with the increasing prominence of China, Australia, South Korea, Japan and India. As a major power, the United States has always maintained relationships with the Asia Pacific countries at varying levels. However, during the last decade, a domestic crisis situation in the United States coupled with the war demands in Iraq and Afghanistan forced Washington to focus on its own homeland and in these theatres of war rather than on robust foreign policy initiatives. The Obama government has recently sought to reorient its approach towards the Asia-Pacific. In tune with the evolving strategic environment, President Obama announced his “deliberate and strategic decision” that “as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future, by upholding core principles and in close partnership with our allies and friends.” Given the strategic emergence of the Asia Pacific region and the huge economic interests involved, there has been a significant rethinking on the need to develop and strengthen relationships within the region and also with the United States. It is therefore important to analyze how the regional powers will position themselves vis-a-vis the United States and how they would respond to the rebalancing initiative. Identifying opportunities to expand bilateral trade, which complements the ongoing negotiations toward the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) accord, is a key component in the whole regional build-up. The concomitant and growing economic and security challenges faced by the Asia Pacific region and the United States are issues that have engaged the attention of political and intelligence circles. The Indo-Japanese and Australian strategic convergence tends to be perceived as a counterweight to China. Bilateral counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing to combat Islamic insurgency and terrorism led to renewed discussions and induced closer US involvement in the region. Regional countries deliberated their approaches and strategies. It is in this context that the CPPR Centre for Strategic Studies sought to develop a knowledge base on the Asia Pacific with special focus on US relations with the region. The context was explored to visualize the future road map for strategic relationships between the United States & the region taking into account developments crucial to the United States and countries outside the region. Some of these key aspects include: Japan's “normal power” positioning vis-à-vis an assertive China; the Indo-China relationship, which swings between hostilities and trade; India's particular relationship with Pakistan; and India's emerging economic and security ties with Japan and Australia. The CPPR's Centre for Strategic Studies provided a platform for prominent strategists, think tank analysts, leading experts and academicians to discuss, debate and map the future US role in the Asia Pacific. While analyzing how the US rebalancing strategy is evolving and shaping the strategic environment in the Asia-Pacific, the CPPR conference also examined its possible outcomes and implications, particularly for India.
The study of the rise of India and China in what has already been dubbed the ‘Asian 21st Century’ is of profound international importance. The resurgence of China and India marks the restoration to regional pre-eminence of two civilizations that dominated their mutual spheres of influence for millennia until Western imperial encroachment into Asia in the 17th Century. Unsurprisingly, in addition to the re-establishment of strong bilateral economic relations – China is India’s greatest source of imports, for instance – ancient sources of Sino-Indian friction are re-emerging, and are acting as propellants for arms accumulation. In this context, the April 2012 launch of India’s Agni V nuclear-capable ballistic missile was notable for two related reasons: first, the missile’s range has rendered all of China vulnerable to an Indian nuclear strike; secondly, if any doubt remained over the Agni V’s intended target set, the Indian Press has universally dubbed the missile the ‘China Killer’, a nickname that seems to enjoy the Indian Government’s tacit approval. Emblematic of the growing military competition between China and India, the Agni V launch lent credence to the notion that an arms race is evolving between Asia’s most populous powers. In assessing the threats and opportunities posed to the West and Russia by a Sino-Indian arms race, this thesis initially examines the applicability of arms race theory to the Sino-Indian strategic relationship, and why it is vital that stakeholders comprehend why unbridled programmes of arms accumulation tend to imperil rather than enhance national security. This thesis concludes that India is a most desirable economic and strategic partner for the West and Russia, but that hidden threats lie in wait for would-be partners whose principal concern is to enrol India in a de facto anti-Chinese alliance. Indeed, a China obsessed by the fear of being encircled by enemies is likely only to accelerate its own military advancement should it perceive that India is engaged in an alliance aimed at containing Chinese power. It is also concluded that domestic factors are just as important drivers for Chinese arms accumulation as strategic competition with India and the USA.
Asian Defence Review 2018
BALANCING RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES: INDIA'S FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES (Asian Defence Review 2018, KW Publications, New Delhi, 2018)2018 •
As the center of world economic growth and world politics is shifting to East Asia, the region is undergoing a strategic transformation due to the ongoing power shift. As a result, major regional powers, namely the USA, China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and South East Asian states are building up their military potential, in particular naval forces, amid aggravating regional security problems and escalation of maritime disputes. This paper aims to assess regional strategies and military buildup in the Indo-Pacific. With the USA seeking to preserve dominance in the region, China trying to realign the regional power dynamics in its favor, Japan aiming to preserve its place as one of the regional leaders, India and Russia with their goals to become independent powers, and middle and small powers searching for an adequate answer to regional challenges, East Asia and the Indo-Pacific are clearly showing a complex dynamics of competing regional strategies and visions of regional order.
This year-in-review essay highlights the Abe administration's attempts at defining its "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" grand strategic vision with like-minded parties. It assesses Japan's engagement with states that have demonstrated active interest in the concept: the United States, Australia, India, France and the United Kingdom. The essay underscores the tension between Trump's extortionist and transactional instincts and the need for the US to engage multilaterally in the region, but also suggests that China has softened its stance towards Japan in light of a more confrontational US China policy. The essay will open with an assessment of Japanese domestic politics and the Abe administration's economic agenda, because domestic stability has allowed Abe's signature foreign policy initiatives. Abe consolidated power as he secured his third term as LDP president, despite a string of political scandals. Along with his aspirations for a powerful and prosperous Japan, he implemented structural reforms of the labour market including new caps on overtime work and a new immigration law that potentially opened Japan's doors to low-and high-skilled workers. In the year under review, and in line with his administration's Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision, Abe issued new defence guidelines that have set Japan further on track towards an active military role. The guidelines outline measures to enhance Japan's capabilities in «cross-domain operations» in cyber, space and electromagnetic warfare and a comprehensive modernization of conventional defence equipment which includes new missile systems, advanced fighter jets and aircraft carrier capabilities in direct response to China's military rise. Finally, Abe confirmed his determination to revise Japan's war-renouncing constitution, however unlikely the attainment of that goal is, at least in the near future and in the face of persistent popular opposition.
Journal of Peace and War Studies
On the Path to Conflict? Scrutinizing U.S.-China Rivalry2020 •
Since the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the international community has witnessed an escalation of the U.S.-China rivalry. Moreover, the present-day COVID-19 pandemic, which began in China in late 2019, seems to have transformed the two great powers’ strategic and economic rivalry into an ideological one. Such intensification of the U.S.-China rivalry is likely to bear largely on the world community, as did the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Reflecting on these circumstances for our 2020 issue, seven strategic thinkers scrutinize various dimensions of the U.S.-China rivalry and share their insights. Min Ye closely examines central discourses regarding the U.S.-China rivalry in the academic and policy communities, such as the Thucydides Trap, clash of civilizations, and divided peace. Based on her critical assessment of such preexisting approaches, she provides an alternative lens on the roles domestic and international agencies have played in reducing tensions between the two superpowers. While presenting the detailed empirical evidence of the increasing China-Russia military cooperation, Lyle Goldstein and Vitaly Kozyrev offer a number of practical policy recommendations for U.S. national security to deter the strengthening of China-Russia military ties and maintain a certain level of cooperation with the two nations on such global issues as climate change and nuclear non-proliferation. Krista Wiegand and Hayoun Ryou-Ellison analyze U.S. and Chinese strategies concerning the South China Sea through an international law framework, illuminating that both powers have often utilized their own legal interpretations to support their claims on the area, as opposed to simply resorting to military force. By exploring policy positions of Israel, one of America’s closest allies, vis-à-vis the U.S. and China, Zhiqun Zhu reveals a common dilemma that many world nations have faced—i.e. they want to work with both great powers for their security and economic interests, rather than choosing either the U.S. or China, but the rising U.S.-China rivalry tends to force the latter option. Dawn Murphy thoroughly traces the evolution of U.S.-China economic competition during the Trump administration, implying that it might be difficult for the current trend to get reversed considering the transition of economic rivalry to strategic and ideological realms after the COVID-19 pandemic. On top of these scholarly articles, four Norwich University students—John Hickey, Shayla Moya, Kathryn Preul, and Faith Privett—explain America’s foreign policy blunders in Afghanistan utilizing the Just War theory. They also suggest political, economic, and military approaches that could bring stability in conflict-stricken Eastern Ukraine.
2020 •
Strategies for the Indo-Pacific: Perceptions of the U.S. and Like-Minded Countries
China’s Growing Influence in the Indian Ocean: Implications for Sri Lanka and its Regional Allies2019 •
East Asia Strategic Review: China’s Rising Strategic Ambitions in Asia
1. Chapter 2: “China’s Japan Challenge: Regional Ambitions and Geopolitics of East Asia”2019 •
2019 •
Contemporary Politics
Chaos as opportunity: the United States and world order in India’s grand strategy2020 •
East Asia Strategic Review: China’s Rising Strategic Ambitions in Asia
China-Central Asia Relations: Centrality of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation2019 •
1999 •
China's Belt and Road Vision: Geoeconomics and Geopolitics
China's Belt and Road Vision: Geoeconomics and Geopolitics2020 •
Scaling India-Japan Cooperation in Indo-Pacific and Beyond 2025: Corridors, Connectivity and Contours
Chapter 11: Infrastructure Investment: EPQI, BRI and the Emerging Asian Contest2019 •
Joint US-Korea Academic Studies
Kei jointus-korea 2019 190724 final digital2019 •