Friday, February 9: Many swear by the unmatched beauty of Jammu and Kashmir, making it a popular tourist destination for Indians in winter. However, the region, usually adorned in a blanket of white during this time, witnessed a starkly different reality for a large portion of this season. After an uncharacteristically dry December, many parts of Jammu-Kashmir shattered records in January 2024, becoming the driest and warmest in 43 years, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
This affected many districts in the Union Territory, including Srinagar. The district’s average daytime temperatures soared to a record-breaking 11.9°C in January, much higher than the 6.7°C usual for the area, according to IMD data based on 1981-2010. Even minimums lingered around -3.2°C, in the negatives, but still 1.3°C above the average. Precipitation levels have also plummeted across the summer capital, with the city recording just 30 mm of rain so far this year — a mere third of its usual average of 113 mm, according to IMD.
Even renowned winter havens like Gulmarg, known for its winter sports and ski adventures, suffered from an eerily snowless January. With average temperatures hovering at an uncharacteristic 5.7°C, snowfall returned to the region only in February, a month later than usual. Low-lying Jammu also recorded its highest mean maximum temperature since 1983 at 13.4°C, consistent with the warming trend.
El Niño and weak western disturbances to blame
Meteorologists attribute these snowy and warming anomalies to a confluence of factors. El Niño, the notorious Pacific Ocean warmer responsible for disrupting global weather patterns, played its hand. Additionally, the usually moisture-laden western disturbances, bringing snowfall to the Himalayas, were uncharacteristically weak this year, leaving the region parched and yearning for its familiar white blanket. While climate change might seem like another culprit, January's data alone is not enough to form a conclusive link yet, IMD Srinagar's Director Mukhtar Ahmad told India Today.
Additionally, a recent IISER study might’ve identified new potential factors affecting these seasonal discrepancies: Siberian High and atmospheric blocking. These weather systems act as barriers in high elevations, blocking some winds, and strengthening others. Combined, these could have contributed to the large number of cold days over North India through December and January.
Read more about these systems here.
Impact on agriculture, hydropower and overall economy
However, the consequences of this unusual winter are far-reaching, and certainly cannot be ignored. Warmer temperatures and lack of snowfall are contributing to an alarming shrinkage of glaciers, which are a vital source of water for Himalayan rivers. This not only disrupts the delicate ecosystem but also threatens the livelihoods of millions who depend on these rivers for agriculture in India, China, Pakistan and Nepal.
READ: Agricultural crisis may be on the cards for North India
A recent study has confirmed that the Hindu Kush Himalayan region has been warming at almost double the global average rate. This could adversely affect the Yarlung Tsangpo river in China and Brahmaputra in India. With several hydropower projects planned on these rivers, any impact on them could also hamper the carbon neutrality ambitions of the nations involved.
Further, the absence of snow in tourist hotspots like Gulmarg could also have a significant economic impact, disrupting the vital winter tourism industry.
After snowfall returned to parts of Jammu and Kashmir and other Himalayan states in the beginning of February, conditions have taken a turn for the clearer in Jammu and Kashmir once again. IMD forecasts show that most districts will be in for semi-cloudy skies, with no precipitation likely over the next five days.
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