The Lynchpin of Africa, Djibouti: Recognizing the Importance of Regional Power Policy Divergence in Great Power Competition
By Odin Bartsch & Blair Maddock-Ferrie, Royal Military College
Djibouti is a small African state that, by virtue of its critical geographical position, has become a nation of military bases in which no great power can exert hegemonic control. The investment and protection that comes from the great power rivalry in the region places the nation in a position in which it encourages all regional powers to invest in the state. Djibouti uses the offerings of the investing states to maintain a superior per capita GDP to its neighbours while lacking in their natural resources or exports. Djibouti is uniquely positioned to access the oil-rich African interior, the chokepoint of Bab al-Mandab Strait and power projection into Eastern Africa’s strategically contested regions. The importance of Djibouti is highlighted by the competing objectives of China, the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, which have created a functionally neutral state in a continent with a long history of great power spheres of influence.
Djibouti is the closest African port to Gwadar, Pakistan, and is geographically positioned for China to integrate Ethiopia’s railroad with Djibouti to provide Ethiopia access to a port. Its position in proximity to Pakistan and the ability to access other Chinese allies in Africa, such as Ethiopia, Eritrea, Chad, and others, make it critical to Chinese interests. The most important Chinese interest is the Belt and Road initiative which China views as a crucial step in its global expansion.
At the same time, Djibouti provides the US with a base for counter-terrorism and the means to undermine Chinese influence in Africa. Camp Lemonnier is Americas only base in Africa and has been an important component of combating Islamic extremism and piracy in the region. The importance of Djibouti to China has not escaped the US either, with a majority of the scholarship on the nation coming from the US military or military-affiliated sources. There have been proposals , up to the complete subsidization of the nation, to compete with investments from China in Djibouti to prevent further Chinese gain. Due to the importance of Djibouti to China, any US counter initiative is unlikely to succeed. The American proposal to all but fund the nation’s economy with the goal of counter China, however, illustrates the importance of Djibouti to the US. Therefore, the US is unlikely to leave China with a dominant position regarding this key strategic location.
Additionally, France has had a military base in its former colony since Djibouti’s independence to ensure that it continues to have a degree of regional influence. France uses this base for regional power projection and this military presence has served Djibouti as a de facto guarantee from annexation by its larger neighbours. France’s base in Djibouti gives France a direct voice for its interests, which are divergent from those of China and the United States. The primary point of this policy divergence is the desire to retain a say in its former colony, which has resulted in allegations of ongoing neo colonialism. This places the French directly at odds with Chinese expansion.
For Djibouti taking sides in these machinations is untenable as Djibouti lacks the political stability or incentive to counter the likely meddling activities from other state actors that would ensue following an open alliance with any one power. To best ensure its stability and lacking of other options, Djibouti attempts to pose no hindrance to any national interest. Consequently, Djibouti has made it clear that it is ostensibly neutral regarding the ambitions of the great powers that have assets within its borders. This neutrality vis-à-vis creates a situation in the great power activities of the US, China and France balance each other with the result that no nation can decisively assert influence in Djibouti.
To ensure internal stability beyond a detente of the great powers, Djibouti has a semi-alliance with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia uses Djibouti as a base for operations against Houthis forces operating off the coast of Djibouti and countering Iranian interest in Africa. In return, Saudi Arabia provides intelligence and domestic counterterrorism if the other great powers cannot provide it. This has left the most advantageous option for Saudi influence in Djibouti to be this limited investment, thus, to a degree, protecting Djibouti from direct great power conflict.
In this environment of competing great power interests, foreign investment has become Djibouti’s primary wealth generation as the nation lacks sufficient arable land and natural resources to have a sustainable export economy. This economic deficit, as such, has become the primary means of foreign influence in Djibouti. The Chinese have been the most generous, with some of the largest Belt and Road projects in Africa taking place in the region. On top of Chinese largesse, the US invests heavily in Djibouti, as does Saudi Arabia and others that have military assets in the nation. These revenue streams are critical to Djibouti’s economy and sovereignty. The loss of any of these bases would be economically and politically catastrophic for Djibouti; to this end, it continues to entertain offers from Russia and other interested nations — creating a form of “competition for influence.” At the same time, the loss of these bases would decisively sway power in Africa while inflicting severe losses on these investing countries further reinforcing this competition for influence.
The loss of the geographical position of Djibouti and the investment in the nation ensures that a great power withdrawing from it would be strategically disastrous for China, the United States and Saudi Arabia. Further, due to the position that Djibouti holds in Chinese plans, in the event of a conflict between the US and China, makes it unlikely that the territory would be subject to significant damage due to the mutual importance of Djibouti to both great powers, ensuring neutrality by detente.
Djibouti is an interesting case study in great power competition as it is essential to most great global powers while under the hegemonic control of none. Of the nations involved in Djibouti, China certainly has the greatest to gain. However, its geographical position ensures that every great power that seeks to counteract China in Africa will invest in Djibouti to prevent the growth of Chinese influence in East Africa. The lessons of Djibouti reveal that by the lack of opposition to any foreign power, a state can achieve a form of functional neutrality when coupled with geographical good fortune.
Blair Maddock-Ferrie is a Second Lieutenant in the Canadian Army with degrees in Political Science and History from Royal Military College. Blair is interested in disinformation and South East Asian politics.
Officer Cadet Odin Bartsch is a Bachelors of Arts with Honors student at the Royal Military College of Canada majoring in Political Science. He has a keen interest in understanding the causes of European conflicts and their progression.
