The 16th Census of India was significantly delayed, paralyzing many works pertaining to official statistics. The reasons behind such delays were reported to be primarily due to the Covid pandemic and related technological and logistical infrastructure deficiencies. The upcoming census, budgeted at a massive Rs. 3,768 crores, will differ from previous censuses in that, unlike previous rounds, it will not be recorded on pen and paper. To promote the Digital India movement, enumerators will use tablets and smartphones to record information. Another interesting fact about the upcoming census is that it will be partially web-based and will allow citizens to self-enumerate. They can register on the Census India website with their respective mobile numbers and will be directed to input codes for different questions online. This is a completely new initiative introduced by the Home Ministry of the Government of India to encourage the use of technology and digital platforms. However, before the commencement of the census enumeration, it is important to delve into the details of how successful this endeavor could be for a developing nation like India. While a web-based paperless census is a welcome step toward digitalization and a cost-saving measure by reducing the burdens on enumerators, we can also look at several other examples from different nations around the world to assess its success story.
Very recently, in early 2023, India’s neighboring country Pakistan also started its first-ever digital census. Budgeted at Rs. 3,400 Crores, the census has earned appreciation from various administrative bodies. However, the problem of undercounting in populous cities like Karachi still persists due to the presence of refugees and migrants from other nations (source: The Wire).
In Italy, during its 2019 housing census, the exact same mixed mode of enumeration was used, where online responses were recorded through the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) method. In Grimaccia et al. (2023), the differences between the profiles of respondents from CAWI households (households that responded using CAWI) and non-CAWI households were studied. It was observed that the elderly, foreigners, people living in small towns, and people with a low level of education were less likely to respond to web surveys. It has also been noted that including a mail survey for those without internet access helped improve the response rate and overall success of enumeration. Additionally, mail surveys and web-based surveys are especially advantageous when the questionnaire contains sensitive questions.
In the past few years, with the more widespread use of the internet in India (around 52% of Indian households use the internet, source: IAMAI), it is expected that technological unavailability may not pose a significant challenge to the implementation of web surveys and self-enumeration. However, in Italy, where 75% of households have internet connections, the response to web surveys was influenced by cultural and generational differences. Before the commencement of the census, setting up enumeration centers in less developed cities and rural areas for the elderly and less educated citizens might help increase people’s response to the new system of census enumeration.
Another popular practice is the sampling method, where there are typically two questionnaires: one long and another short. The short questionnaire is canvassed for only a fraction of the population, roughly 10% or 20%. However, many countries around the world are moving towards a new dimension of population counting by discarding the population census altogether and using administrative registers instead. The most recent example is the British census, which was last held in 2021 and discontinued thereafter. The first step towards a register-based census was taken by Iceland, which established a national population register in 1953. Denmark was the first country to conduct a register-based census, including the Population Register, Building and Dwelling Register, and Enterprise Register, in 1981. The Netherlands has also been conducting a register-based census for the past 40 years. The Netherlands has a comprehensive municipal Personal Records Database (BRP), which Statistics Netherlands is authorized to use under the Statistics Netherlands Act. Another important data source is the System of Social Statistical Databases (SSB). The popularity of the register-based census has gained momentum, especially in European countries, due to several advantages, including cheaper implementation and a reduced burden on respondents. In India, data from different registers and even large-scale sample surveys could be harnessed to explore the possibility of a register-based census in the future. This could include hospital records reporting births and deaths, various databases related to the registration of social welfare schemes, tax records, geo-information, etc. The large database of Aadhaar Cards could also be incorporated into this endeavor. Although India currently has no plans for conducting a register-based census, the possibility could be explored in the future.
At present, the future of the Census in India could be decided based on the results of the upcoming mixed-mode census, which could provide insight into the percentage of people opting for self-enumeration. This will give an idea of the extent of digital accessibility among the common citizens in the country and, therefore, will also help in conducting large-scale sample surveys in a web-based mode. The successful conduction of web-based surveys and online registration and recording of household information could, in the future, eliminate the need for the massive task of door-to-door enumeration and reduce the burden on respondents, as well as save a substantial amount of money. Let’s first see if India is ready to embrace digital enumeration!