P Chidambaram writes: Gearing up for the battle

The leaders of I.N.D.I.A. have concentrated their fire power on inflation and unemployment. In the last week, they have expanded their targets to include hate speech (Mr Ramesh Bidhuri MP), curbing of freedoms (NewsClick and its editor), denial of states’ dues (MGNREGA funds to West Bengal), encroachment on states’ rights (no new medical colleges or seats in Tamil Nadu), undermining the Courts of Justice (pendency of 70 recommendations of the Collegium), Chinese incursions (continued silence), terrorist incidents (Kashmir), slowing economic growth (after 7.2 per cent GDP growth in 2022-23, estimated growth in 2023-24 will be 6.3 per cent), misuse of intelligence and investigative agencies (cases against Opposition leaders only) and the growing cult of personality (Mr Modi will be the face of the party in the elections in five states).

No one anticipated there will be a cat among the pigeons. Mr Nitish Kumar, chief minister, sprung a surprise on the nation by revealing the results of the caste headcount (survey) conducted in Bihar. Not surprisingly, the OBCs accounted for 63 per cent of the state’s population. Issues such as One Nation One Election and Uniform Civil Code were swept away by the tide of caste. Karnataka announced that the results of its caste survey would be published “when the time was right.” Odisha revealed that a caste survey was underway. Allies of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh demanded a caste headcount in the most caste-conscious state of the country. I.N.D.I.A. raised the pitch by branding the Women’s Reservation Bill as ‘anti-OBC’ and promising to amend the law at the first opportunity. Mr Rahul Gandhi put ‘caste census’ near the top of the agenda of an I.N.D.I.A. government.

Searching for Response

Not since demonetisation has the BJP been so rattled. Leaders of the party (who have been forbidden to think or speak) are waiting for a cue from Mr Modi. Mr Modi has realised that his project to build ‘Hindu’ as a monolithic vote bank against Muslims, Christians and other minorities is in danger. His claim to be the protagonist of OBC rights is under challenge.

His gambit that the ‘poor’ are entitled to the first claim on the nation’s resources fell flat because it is the poor who have been neglected and short-changed by his government. Besides, it did not answer the question why the reservation of 10 per cent for the economically weaker sections (EWS) did not include the poor among the SC, ST and OBC. Mr Modi is still in search of an effective response to the challenge posed in the name of OBC.

Mr Modi faces another problem too. The opposition to an All India caste census is not from the Bihar unit of the BJP but from its central leadership. Mr Modi has the daunting task of opposing the demand for a nationwide caste census while keeping his flock in Bihar (and perhaps U.P.) together.

Economic Share

The Congress’ leaders — Mr Mallikarjun Kharge and Mr Rahul Gandhi — have strongly endorsed the caste headcount. It is well to remember that OBC is not a monolithic bloc. In some states it has already been divided into OBC and MBC (most backward classes) or OBC and EBC (extremely backward classes). In the early years, the Dravidian movement overcame this hurdle by uniting the OBCs around ‘Tamil identity’ and under the large tent of ‘non-Brahmin’. Eventually, as some of the OBCs gained political power and influence, M Karunanidhi was obliged to recognise the MBCs. The danger of taking this sub-categorisation to the extreme will be atomisation of the OBCs.

Caste unites as well as divides. If the OBCs must win their legitimate rights, especially in the economic market place — their share of income, capital, loans, contracts, licenses, jobs and economic opportunities — they must remain united as far as possible. But, what about the more disadvantaged MBCs or EBCs? There is no one solution that will fit all situations. A possible solution is OBC reservation with a sub-reservation for the economically weaker sections (EWS) among the OBCs. Of course, this suggestion will require further debate and refinement.

The ca(s)t(e) is among the pigeons. It will be a fascinating duel between the BJP and I.N.D.I.A. At present, the numbers and the momentum appear to be on the side of I.N.D.I.A.