The Ram Mandir Temple Is Part of Modi’s Playbook

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to rally his base with a controversial temple consecration, Iran carries out cross-border strikes in Pakistan, and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina begins her fourth consecutive term.

Modi Prepares to Inaugurate Temple

Next Monday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the Ram Mandir temple in Ayodhya, in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The temple, which will be 161 feet tall once complete, is constructed on the grounds of the Babri Masjid, a mosque that stood for nearly 500 years before Hindu extremists destroyed it in 1992—a traumatic moment for Muslims in India and beyond.

Ram Mandir is meant to mark the birthplace of the Hindu god Rama, whose statue will be placed inside the temple. Sharad Sharma, a member of the trust charged with the temple’s construction and a spokesperson for the Hindu nationalist group Vishva Hindu Parishad, said recently that Ram Mandir “will be our Vatican City, the holiest site for Hindus across the world.”

The story behind the temple is characteristic of Modi’s politics during nearly a decade as prime minister: It is deeply controversial, it represents the fulfillment of a long-standing promise, and it is a savvy political move—for Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s large Hindu base, that is.

In 2019, India’s Supreme Court ruled that the grounds of the destroyed Babri Masjid would be placed in a government-run trust, paving the way for the construction of Ram Mandir. The court also called for a new mosque to be erected in a prominent place. Instead, local Muslim community members were allocated space in an isolated area 15 miles from where Babri Masjid stood. They say they have received little government support for the construction of a new mosque, which has yet to begin.

Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, is led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, a firebrand Hindu monk and close Modi ally. Adityanath has said the temple will be a symbol of “cultural, spiritual, and social unity.” Instead, it will likely deepen tensions between Hindus and Muslims. Critics will point to the temple’s inauguration by Modi as another blow to India’s secular traditions. Like so many of Modi’s policies, the consecration will be a highly divisive affair.

The event also fulfills another of Modi’s signature promises—all tied in some way to Hindu nationalism. The first such pledge he fulfilled was the 2019 revocation of Indian-administered Kashmir’s special autonomous status, giving New Delhi more control over the Muslim-majority region. The second, in 2020, amended a citizenship law to allow refugees who fled to India from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, or Pakistan for religious persecution to qualify for Indian citizenship—but excluded Muslim refugees.

And now comes the Ram Mandir consecration, which the BJP has pushed for decades. The temple inauguration is explicitly political: It is taking place before construction is complete and well ahead of India’s national elections this spring. The BJP will reportedly praise itself for seeing the project through. Some opposition leaders are boycotting the event, denouncing it as a political gimmick.

However, Modi has cleverly framed Ram Mandir with messaging around social welfare and development. In recent days, he has also inaugurated several infrastructure projects in Ayodhya  and linked Rama’s life story to uplifting the poor. This enables him to amplify two of his major campaign themes and perhaps also to present a softer Hindu nationalism to those outside his core base who may be tougher to win over.

Modi is widely expected to win a third straight term in a few months. But with Ram Mandir, he’s sparing no effort to further position himself for electoral success, resorting to the tried-and-true tactics that have long energized his supporters and enraged his critics.

What We’re Following

Iran stages deadly attack in Pakistan. On Tuesday, Iran carried out cross-border strikes that it says targeted bases for the militant group Jaish al-Adl in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan. The attack reportedly involved drones and missiles and killed two children and wounded several other people, according to Pakistani officials. Bilateral border tensions are long-standing, and Iran has previously staged cross-border actions, although not on this scale.

Pakistan’s diplomatic response was immediate: It recalled its ambassador in Tehran and suspended all high-level engagements with Iran. Although the attack was serious and Pakistan will be under political pressure to hit back hard, it needs to be careful; Islamabad won’t want to risk a fight with its neighbor at a moment of severe economic stress, political volatility, and a resurgence of terrorism.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s government will need to tread carefully around Pakistan’s large Shiite population—which makes up 15 to 20 percent of the total population. Third-party mediation is likely, and China—which has close ties to Iran and especially Pakistan—could be very effective in pushing for de-escalation.

Jaishankar in Iran. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visited Tehran this week. Although India has robust ties with most countries in the Middle East, its relationship with Iran has floundered in recent years. It has drastically reduced imports of Iranian energy due to U.S. sanctions; progress on a joint effort to develop a port in the southern Iranian city of Chabahar has been slow; and it has deepened ties with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s rival.

Other recent developments haven’t helped: India has strongly backed Israel in its war against Iran-sponsored Hamas, and attacks on commercial ships by Iran-sponsored Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have imperiled New Delhi’s economic interests and energy security. Unlike many trips Jaishankar has made to the Middle East in recent years, his visit to Iran was likely more about trying to reduce tensions than expand partnership.

Although his initial meetings focused on infrastructure projects, one of Jaishankar’s main agenda points was likely security: discussing threats to Indian ships in the Red Sea, as well as perhaps a recent unexplained explosion near the Israeli Embassy in New Delhi. (India has accused Tehran of being behind previous attacks on Israeli targets in New Delhi.)

Even if the trip was a downer for New Delhi, the silver lining was that it showcased the successes of its strategic autonomy: Two of Jaishankar’s most recent trips have been to Russia and Iran, despite India’s close relations with the West.

Hasina begins another term in Bangladesh. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina took the oath of office for her fourth consecutive term on Jan. 11. Her 37-person cabinet will look much different than the previous one: Seventeen ministries will have new leaders, including 14 people who will be holding cabinet positions for the first time. The new setup may in part reflect her view that the country’s many growing challenges require new blood.

One key appointment is that of the new finance minister, Mahmood Ali, a former foreign affairs minister and diplomat who has taught economics at Dhaka University. Hasina may hope that Ali can draw on his diplomatic experience to help navigate relations with the West, where key trade partners that have also clashed with Dhaka over democracy issues, including the country’s recent election that many Western capitals characterized as not free or fair.

Under the Radar

In the list of countries participating in the U.S.-led military campaign against the Houthis, one name immediately jumps out: Sri Lanka, which is contributing ships to the effort. It is striking that a country generally seen as nonaligned—and dealing with severe economic stress—would sign on to a military operation dominated by Western powers.

The official reason Sri Lanka provided for its participation in the campaign is a desire to help counter threats to international shipping, freedom of navigation, and the global economy. But there may also be geopolitical factors at play. Despite a long-standing friendship with the Palestinians, Sri Lanka has a solid partnership with Israel—including Israeli military assistance to Sri Lanka during its brutal war against the Tamil Tiger insurgency that ended in 2009.

More recently, Israel has been a key arms supplier to Sri Lanka’s air force; thousands of Sri Lankan laborers also work in Israel. Meanwhile, Colombo’s ties with Washington have strengthened in recent months, thanks in great part to U.S. financial support for Sri Lanka during its economic crisis and a recent pledge to invest $553 million in an Indian port project in Colombo.

FP’s Most Read This Week

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• Biden Has No Good Options in Yemen by Christina Lu and Robbie Gramer
• Beijing’s Blind Spot on Taiwan by Howard W. French

Regional Voices

Researcher Akash Sahu writes about the expanding India-France relationship in South Asian Voices. “While defense trade remains a vital element,” he argues, “India and France are increasingly broadening the scope of their relationship to include shared geopolitical objectives in the Indo-Pacific.”

A Kathmandu Post editorial laments the worsening problem of unsafe roads in Nepal. “Road transport, it appears, is getting riskier day by day,” it argues. “But there have been few if any effective initiatives to cut down on the number of fatal incidents on our roads.”