In brief
The political situation will remain highly volatile in the medium term. The president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, has amended the constitution allowing him to run for a third term and extend his tenure indefinitely. Insecurity and instability undermines the country's outlook as most of its territory controlled by various rebel groups, although the government controls key cities, including the capital, Bangui, with support from Russian mercenaries and Rwandan forces. Economic activity will rise gradually in 2024-25, supported by an ongoing IMF funded programme, high commodity prices, despite the drag caused by insecurity.
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Featured analysis
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Economic growth
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Developed economies GDP | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| World GDP | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| World trade | -0.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
Inflation indicators
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Developed economies CPI | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Manufactures (measured in US$) | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 71.1 | 68.1 | 66.7 |
| Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||
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Financial variables
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| ¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| ¥:US$ (av) | 107.8 | 105.3 | 104.8 |
| Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.84 | 6.75 | 6.78 |
| Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit | |||